Three Order-Cut Scenarios Hit Total Profits
A financial-holding investment advisory unit, mapping Taiwan supply-chain exposure to NVIDIA amid the turmoil over NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's departure, ran extreme-scenario simulations. The report notes that NVIDIA's Hopper-architecture downgraded AI chips designed for the mainland China market, downgraded GeForce RTX 4090 versions, and H200 export plans have been blocked, and if orders are cut without other orders promptly filling the gap, overall Taiwan stock profits will be significantly affected. It had originally estimated 2027 total profits for listed companies at NT$9.79 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 15.4 times; with a 10% order cut, profits would be revised down 2.2% to NT$9.58 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 15.8 times; with a 20% cut, down 4.4% to NT$9.36 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 16.1 times; in the worst 30% cut, down 6.6% to NT$9.15 trillion, a decrease of about NT$640 billion, with the P/E ratio up to 16.5 times.
Testing, Substrates and ODM Under Short-Term Pressure
On supply-chain impact, the advisory unit sees testing, CCL, substrates and ODM makers facing the greatest impact. Eight Taiwan makers with high NVIDIA revenue exposure face short-term pressure, including Wistron (3231) at 60%, Hon Hai (2317) at 40%, Unimicron (3037) at 35%, TSMC (2330) and WinWay (6515) at 30%, King Yuan Electronics (2449) at 25%, Asia Vital Components (3017) at 20%, and Elite Material (2383) at 10%. The advisory unit also stresses that Taiwan makers' technology barriers and production flexibility in advanced processes, advanced packaging and system assembly make them extremely hard for non-Taiwan makers to replace in the short term.
ASIC and Optical Communications See Order Shifts
As NVIDIA's market share may wobble, major cloud service providers are accelerating in-house ASIC and GPU chips to seize the market, which could fill the vacated advanced-process demand. Consumables makers with diversified customers and high-technical barriers, PA power amplifier makers, and TPU-concept stocks could benefit; in passive components, NVIDIA's main suppliers are Japanese and Korean makers, leaving Taiwan makers a chance to expand non-NVIDIA market share. On the other hand, the U.S. is expected to speed up de-China policy restrictions following the 3.2T optical communication module specifications, and vertically integrated Taiwan optical communication and IC design makers could see order shifts.
The advisory unit highlights 7 beneficiary stocks, including ASIC chip designers MediaTek (2454) and Global Unichip (3443); cloud racks and networking names Wiwynn (6669) and Accton (2345); and optical communication and PA names TrueLight (3081), VPEC (2455) and WIN Semiconductors (3105). Judging by positioning and historical seasonality, Taiwan stocks rose 60% to 80% of the time from November to February over the past 10 years, and with the National Stabilization Fund announcing market support, the revised overall P/E ratio of only 15.8 to 16.5 times remains attractive versus the historical average of 17 times. Investors need not panic excessively, and the short-term pullback from the personnel turmoil is instead a chance to buy selected stocks in batches.