Mortgage Loans Top 12兆 to Hit Nearly 1-Year High
According to September consumer loan and construction loan statistics released by the Central Bank, total bank mortgage balances reached 12兆234.29億元 at the end of September, up 769.94億元 from August and up 5.02% year-on-year, breaking above 12兆元 for the first time and hitting a nearly 1-year high. Growth momentum mainly came from completed deliveries of Xinjian projects and an increase in building transfers. The central bank cautioned, however, that this September had 11 fewer days affected by Ghost Month than in 2025, so with different comparison bases, single-month data alone is not enough to conclude that overall market conditions have fully rebounded, and housing market demand remains volatile.
Construction Loans Fall for 7th Month, Down Nearly 1% Year-on-Year
In contrast to rising mortgages, construction loans for housing development and other uses continued to decline. Construction loan balances stood at 3兆3,972.29億元 at the end of September, down 189.52億元 from August, falling for 7 consecutive months since the February 2026 peak, down 0.99% year-on-year, the largest drop in nearly 10 years, and posting year-on-year declines for 4 straight months. The central bank noted that developers have been repaying existing financing after project completions, while developers remain cautious about launching new projects, the main reasons for the contraction, showing a divergence between deliveries of existing projects and funding demand for new developments.
Real Estate Lending Ratio Falls to 23.79%
While mortgage balances rose, banks' real estate lending ratio反而 declined, easing statutory quota pressure. The Financial Supervisory Commission stated that the average real estate lending ratio of 36 domestic banks calculated under Article 72-2 of the Banking Act was 23.79% at the end of September, down 0.18 percentage points from August and down 1.98 percentage points from 25.77% a year earlier, a nearly 16-year low, with no bank exceeding 27%. Under the rules, banks' residential and corporate construction lending in principle may not exceed 30% of the sum of deposits and financial bonds, and banks generally reserve a buffer, so the lower ratio helps ease control pressure.
Surging Deposits Dilute Ratio and Ease Lending-Cap Pressure
The FSC further explained that related real estate lending increased by only about 400億元 in September, while bank deposits and financial bonds expanded by about 6,900億元, with denominator growth far outpacing numerator growth, thus pulling down the ratio. In addition, policy-based New Youth安心 loans are excluded from the ratio calculation, so the statutory ratio trend cannot be directly compared with mortgage balance trends. Overall, a delivery wave pushed up mortgages while developer caution shrank construction loans, and changes in the funding structure remain to be watched.