Over 10% Drop in Two Days After Earnings Call
No.2 foundry UMC pulled back sharply after its earnings call, falling 3.46% on the 30th to close at 111.5, with a cumulative drop of 12.89% over 2 consecutive days. Measured from about 160 earlier, the swing decline is already sizable, while this year's high of 185.5 has left a wide high-low gap that has drawn market attention.
Revenue Comparison to 2022 Sparks Valuation Debate
A netizen posted on the PTT stock board under the title "2303 UMC dominates Invincible discussion", citing financial data from Mitake Smart Stock Selection, noting that UMC's revenue in recent years, while higher than in 2023, 2024 and 2025, has not broken out significantly compared with 2022. By contrast, the share price has soared from about 50 in 2022 to this year's high of 185.5, and even after pulling back to 111.5, the P/E ratio is still 17x, which he called "not low."
The netizen argued that a high P/E ratio might be understandable for a company with strong growth prospects, but UMC's main business remains mature-process manufacturing, which may not offer enough growth narrative to support a high valuation. He also judged that the technical chart is approaching a suspected M-top neckline, expressing concern about the outlook, and asked whether this rally was supported by fundamentals or was simply liquidity-driven speculation.
Bulls and Bears Split, Some Say Buy at 90
The post triggered heated discussion, with many bearish netizens seeing further downside, leaving comments such as "buy at 90" and "buy at 60", saying "UMC is hardly a tech stock, mature process is about the same as traditional industry", "mature process can be done by any home fab, 10x P/E for the No.2 player is already a lot", "without EPS growth it gets de-rated", "sold at 16x earlier, tried to bottom-fish at 13x", and "bought at 40 before, with inflation, now waiting to buy at 80."
Bulls, however, argued that UMC is not without narratives, saying "this year for the No.2 player is all about the dream, no doubt, the reason it could be炒 up is next year's TFLN", "GG is cutting mature capacity, the No.2 player is the first to benefit from overflow, utilization has indeed picked up, price hikes are modest but the market was already very conservative", "the answer is CPO and silicon interposer", and "can't UMC have a dream, with CPO directly mentioned, how is there no dream", arguing that this year's rally reflects future expectations and cannot be judged on current revenue and earnings alone. Investors should make independent judgments, evaluate carefully, and bear their own investment risks.