Shares Pull Back Nearly 30% From High, Holding Above Annual Line
Taiwan stocks plunged 1156 points on Friday, closing above the 45K mark. MediaTek (2454) fell 130 to 3915, down 3.2%. Measured from the intraday high of 5480 on September 22, the decline is about 28.5%, nearly 30%. In terms of筹码, foreign investors have sold for 16 consecutive sessions, totaling 39,814 lots. In October, foreign investors sold a net 9943 hundred million in Taiwan stocks, with MediaTek accounting for 1800 hundred million. Even after the pullback, MediaTek still trades 30% above its annual line, compared with about 15% for TSMC (2330), showing its earlier gains were larger.
Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Q4 Outlook Optimistic
MediaTek reported Q3 results at its earnings call, with consolidated revenue reaching 1680.58 hundred million, up 18.3% year-on-year to a record high; net profit after tax was 278.82 hundred million, up 14.6% quarter-on-quarter and 10.6% year-on-year, with EPS of 17.5. The company forecasts Q4 revenue of 2101 to 2218 hundred million, up to 32% quarter-on-quarter and up to 48% year-on-year. Wen Jianxun, CEO of Blackstone Finance, pointed to 2 highlights from the call: the AI ASIC revenue outlook raised to US$2.1 to 2.5 billion, and a new customer joining in 2028, saying the upward revision plus the new customer sends a positive signal sufficient to stabilize market confidence and dispel concerns over AI chip production progress.
Expert Points to U.S. Election as Turning Point, Says Trapped Investors Need Not Rush to Cut Losses
On the nearly 30% drop in just over 1 month, Wen Jianxun said MediaTek's boss is at Google, and Google's boss is at the U.S. election, adding that if U.S. local governments resume AI data center approval permits after the election, supply-chain inventory buildup could improve, whether related infrastructure can re-accelerate and turn orders into real profits, with the U.S. midterm elections as a key turning point. He said bluntly that the day after the U.S. midterm elections will be the day of the AI rebound, with future growth momentum still strong. Foreign investors estimate MediaTek EPS next year at about 150 to 160, with a P/E ratio of about 24 times. For trapped investors, he advised not to rush to realize losses, while those with no position could consider buying in batches, and watch whether U.S. policy changes after the election.