Taiex Loses 6-Month Moving Average, Night Session Breaches 45K First
The Taiex fell 1156.5 points on the 30th to close at 45211.83, falling below the 6-month moving average of 45314. U.S. stocks weakened overnight, with Intel plunging 28.58% in its biggest single-day drop since the 1970s, while all four major U.S. indexes weakened. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the most closely linked to the Taiex, slumped 7.2%, and Taiex night futures fell 867 points, dropping below 45000 first to close at 44433.
Institutional Investors Flag Two Key Indicators to Watch
Institutional investors said the Taiex will face a direct battle to defend 45000 on the 2nd. In the short term, focus on whether the index can hold the intraday low of 44726 and whether the number of declining listed stocks narrows. Other factors to watch include whether the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can climb back above its annual moving average, whether Taiex margin balances continue to decline, whether bellwethers MediaTek, Delta Electronics and UMC stabilize and turn stronger, as well as the U.S. election, the Fed rate decision meeting, and guidance from Taiwan and U.S. earnings-season investor conferences.
AI Monetization Doubts and Election Weigh on Confidence
Institutional investors noted the market is mainly worried that AI burns too much cash and monetizes too slowly. As Hon Hai Chairman Young Liu said, AI shows no bubble from an industry perspective, but financial markets fear one, while the arrival of the U.S. midterm elections is affecting fund confidence. Semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu said Intel blaming operating headwinds on the external environment is just making excuses, as TSMC faced the same challenges without cutting its financial forecast, showing the two companies are no longer in the same league in execution and competitiveness.
Safe Havens and Year-End Peak Season Outlook
Institutional investors suggest looking for safe havens for funds amid market volatility, including machine tool, memory, and IC design groups. Machine tools are benefiting from a bottoming cycle and renewed inflows on the AI humanoid robot theme, memory is expected to draw attention on positive outlooks from international majors and low P/E ratios for Taiwan makers, while IC design stocks are seeing bargain hunting after a correction. As political and policy uncertainties clear, historical experience points to a traditional peak season from year-end to the Lunar New Year, with conditions likely to improve after mid-November. The Taiex still has a chance to rebound to 48000, and even challenge the 50,000 mark over the medium to long term.