All Four Major U.S. Indexes Close Lower
U.S. tech stocks faced heavy selling pressure on October 30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 572.25 points, down 1.09%, to close at 51770.31; the S&P 500 fell 140.32 points, down 1.82%, to close at 7580.07; the Nasdaq plunged 747.72 points, down 2.86%, to close at 25437, its largest single-day drop since June 5; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 829.398 points, down 7.20%, to close at 10688.801.
Intel Earnings Miss Drags Down Chip Stocks
Intel reported third-quarter earnings on the 29th, and with a weak next-quarter financial outlook, continued weakness in the laptop market, and capacity impact from an explosion at its Israel plant, its shares plunged from the previous close of $92.07 to $65.76, down 28.58% in a single day, the largest single-day drop since 1974, wiping out about $140 billion in market value. Selling spread across chip stocks, with AMD down 10.88%, Arm down 9.97%, Nvidia down 4.22%, Broadcom down 5.48%, and TSMC ADR down 5.95%; memory stocks also weakened, with SanDisk plunging 13.47%, SK Hynix ADR down 7.95%, and Micron down 5.30%, showing selling was no longer limited to a single stock.
Market Patience Over AI Returns Tested
Concerns over an AI bubble resurfaced, with focus shifting to when expanded capital spending by large cloud service providers will translate into revenue, profit and cash flow. Following earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, cloud businesses still showed growth momentum, but large investment spending and cash flow pressure have raised market scrutiny. SinoPac Securities General Manager Li Xueshi noted that Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and Amazon AWS maintained strong growth, with combined backlog orders of about $1.8 trillion across the three cloud providers and end-user computing demand still far exceeding supply; but quarterly capital spending at Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon more than doubled year on year, while revenue grew only about 10-20%, and Alphabet and Meta even saw quarterly free cash flow turn negative, making the market markedly more sensitive to capital spending and cash flow.
Taiwan Stocks May See Greater Short-Term Volatility
Taiwan stocks already fell sharply last Friday with margin financing down NT$10.4 billion, and continued U.S. declines may add pressure to next week's open. SinoPac Securities believes the TAIEX estimated P/E ratio has fallen from about 21 times at the June high to just above 16 times, near a one-year low; if the P/E ratio moves closer to 16 times, room for long-term positioning increases, with the key being whether markets can rebuild confidence in AI investment returns and earnings growth. Allianz Taiwan's Taiwan equities team noted that short-term sentiment is overriding fundamentals, with electronics heavyweights and the AI supply chain the main source of selling pressure; managers Xiao Huizhong and Chen Siming both believe AI demand, cloud capital spending and Taiwan supply chain's key position remain unchanged, with corporate earnings still the medium- to long-term support, and pullbacks instead offer opportunities to build positions in stages.