Weak Late-Session Rebound, 400 Lots of 2X Leveraged ETF Stop-Lossed
Taiwan stocks recently plunged, with the four major US indexes closing lower across the board on Friday, and investors are divided on the outlook. A netizen posted on the PTT Stock board titled "Taiwan Mobile Market With Stop-Loss Order Including Information Summary," saying he originally wanted to bottom-fish the dip, but found the late-session rebound lacked strength and decided to sell all 400 lots of Capital Taiwan Weighted 2X (00685L) to stop losses, while sharing market observations and compiled information, which immediately sparked heated discussion among netizens.
Global Situation and US Stock Noise in Focus
On the international front, the original poster named the Russia-Ukraine war, US-Iran-Israel conflict, and French debt crisis as potential influences on market trends. On US stocks, he cited OpenAI cutting its 2029 capital expenditure forecast and financing facility, as well as Anthropic being downgraded by Blackstone. In addition, he highlighted inventory equipment seen to some extent in Amazon and Meta earnings reports as a signal to watch.
Bull-Bear Split on Equipment Inventory, AI Benefits Yet to Be Proven
Regarding rising equipment inventory, the original poster compiled both sides of market views. Bulls see it as only temporary, to be gradually resolved once power and plant construction catch up; bears worry power and land are constrained by regulations, with no clear timeline for resolution. He warned that if the issues remain unresolved long-term, equipment inventory accumulating to a certain level could backfire on the industry. On the outlook, he said the market originally expected AI to double overall corporate productivity, but so far it looks more like individual productivity gains, without necessarily lifting overall corporate efficiency in tandem.
To-C Applications Seen as Key, Netizens Split
The original poster said that for AI to break the current stalemate, the key is to find To-C applications soon, citing positives such as AI cracking math conjectures and Hongguo short dramas. The post drew polarized discussion, with some netizens pessimistic about AI development, saying AI applications are limited and To-C is hard to drive the market. Others, however, thought the original poster stopped losses too early, saying stopping out at 1% is not suitable for trading 2X leveraged ETFs, while some questioned whether the market was over-amplifying short-term bearish news, arguing AI's impact on life and work continues to expand and stressing work efficiency has already improved markedly.