Current Account Surplus Widens as Financial Account Outflows Grow in Tandem
In recent years, Taiwan exports have continued to grow, yet the New Taiwan dollar has hovered around cyclical lows. 財信傳媒 Chairman 謝金河 analyzes that the current account is exports minus imports, while the financial account covers investment, deposits and accounts receivable balances, with the two moving in lockstep — the larger the current account surplus, the larger the net financial account outflow. In 二○二四年, the current account surplus was 一一三八億美元, with a financial account net outflow of 九四四億美元; in 二○二五年, the current account surplus was 一八一一億美元, with a financial account net outflow of 一五七二億美元; in 二○二六年上半年, the current account surplus was 一二一○億美元, with a financial account net outflow of 一一八一・九億美元.
Only 八 Years of Net Inflows in 四十二 Years, Funds Mostly Kept Offshore
謝金河 notes that net financial account outflows are a long-term issue. Looking back over the past 四十二年, the financial account recorded net inflows in only 八年, almost all before 二○○四年, with the last time in 二○○九年, when then-President 馬英九 announced a cut in the estate and gift tax rate to 一○％, triggering a return of funds; all other years saw net outflows. He believes this shows Taiwan high-asset class generally keeps money offshore, and corporate profits have not been remitted into Taiwan. When the Chinese economy was booming, high-asset funds were mostly placed in Hong Kong, and now mostly in Singapore. He once visited the DBS Bank headquarters, where a spokesperson revealed that a significant portion of the bank's funds came from Taiwan.
星展銀行 has a market capitalization of 二一二二億新幣, about 一七三二億美元, more than 富邦金, 國泰金 and 中信金 combined. On the corporate side, since the 九○年代, Taiwan companies have focused investment on China, with profits mostly kept in OBU accounts and not remitted back to Taiwan. In recent years, boosted by the AI boom, Taiwan exports have surged and the current account surplus has widened, but corporate investment in the United States has been even larger — the larger Taiwan trade surplus with the United States, the more pronounced the trend of investing in the United States.
Korean Won and Japanese Yen Also Weakening, Foreign Investors Net Sell Over 2兆
謝金河 notes depreciation is not unique to Taiwan. This year, the Korean won at one point fell from 一二一六 to 一五八七・六八 against 1美元, before recently rebounding to 一三二六 against 1美元; the Japanese yen at one point fell to 一六三・九八 against 1美元, and has now recovered to around 一五七, also trending weaker. In addition, pressure on the New Taiwan dollar this year has also come from net foreign outflows, with foreign investors net selling over 逾二兆元 of Taiwan stocks and remitting large amounts of New Taiwan dollars out, naturally creating depreciation pressure.