US Contacts Lithuania Seeking to Open Baltic Transport
POLITICO reported, citing four European officials, that US special envoy for Belarus Cole has contacted Lithuanian diplomats in recent weeks to explore easing restrictions on Belarusian cargo transit. The US hopes Belarusian potash can be shipped to global markets via Lithuania's Port of Klaipeda or other ports in the Baltic region to lower fertilizer costs for American farmers. The Trump administration has reportedly pressured Lithuania to ease EU sanctions on Belarus. However, Lithuania has long supported Ukraine, and European officials also worry that easing sanctions could strengthen Belarusian President Lukashenko.
Canadian Supply Share High as US Seeks Low-Cost Sources
Belarus is a major global potash supplier, accounting for about 20% of the global market. The potash used by the US relies almost entirely on imports, with about 80% coming from Canada. US-Canada trade talks broke down in August, and the two sides subsequently raised tariffs on each other, prompting the Trump administration to seek other supply sources. According to reports, Trump said last month that he was negotiating a major deal with Belarus, hoping to obtain potash at a price lower than current purchases from Canadian companies. A US State Department official said the US would seek business opportunities in line with US economic interests and often discusses related prospects with allies and partners.
EU Requires Unanimity as Lithuania's Role Draws Attention
Belarusian potash exports are currently restricted by EU sanctions. After the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, the EU's 27 member states imposed sanctions over the unfair election and the authorities' crackdown on peaceful protests. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Belarus assisting Russia, the US and Europe further tightened sanctions. Reports note that lifting restrictions on Belarusian potash transit requires unanimous consent from all EU member states. Lithuania will assume the rotating EU presidency early next year and could theoretically veto the sanctions renewal next February, allowing the sanctions to lapse. However, Lithuania is one of the EU's staunchest supporters of Ukraine, and whether it cooperates with the US request could spark domestic political controversy.
European Officials Fear Boosting Lukashenko as US Has Already Partially Eased Sanctions
An Eastern European official told POLITICO that the US is continuing to apply pressure, but the official stressed their response was an absolute no. Another European official questioned whether there would be sufficient market demand for Belarusian potash, given Canada's dominant position in the global potash market. European officials also worry that easing sanctions on Belarus could raise Belarusian President Lukashenko's international standing and give him more leeway to continue jailing political dissidents. Starting in March this year, the US began lifting some sanctions on Belarus, including measures against the state-owned Belarusian Potash Company, framing the move as helping lower fertilizer costs for American farmers. Previously, Cole had mediated efforts that led to Belarus releasing 250 political prisoners, while Washington partially eased sanctions on Belarus.