Inflation Heats Up as Oil Prices Become Key Variable
International oil prices continued to climb, and U.S. inflation heated up again. U.S. September consumer price index YoY rose to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, with the YoY increase in energy prices up 4.3 percentage points from the prior month, becoming the main driver of inflation. In addition, price gains for used cars, transportation services and rents also widened, and core CPI YoY also increased by 0.1 percentage point. 鉅亨買基金 Investment Research Department Head 羅瑤庭 noted that rising oil prices are a major reason the Fed cannot let up. If energy prices remain high, it will not only increase corporate operating costs but may also slow inflation's return to the 2% target, keeping the Fed in a tight policy stance for longer.
Employment Cools With Low Hiring and Low Layoffs
In contrast to rising inflation, the U.S. job market has gradually cooled. U.S. September nonfarm payrolls added only 2.9萬人, far below 13.3萬人 in August and below the average monthly gain of 4.5萬人 over the past 12 months, reflecting a clear weakening in corporate hiring demand. But the September unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and initial jobless claims did not climb明显. 羅瑤庭 analyzed that this shows the U.S. labor market features low hiring and low layoffs, meaning companies have slowed expansion but have not broadly cut staff, which helps ease inflation pressure and gives the Fed a chance to end rate hikes without triggering a recession, showing the economy remains resilient and the need for continued hikes is declining.
Soft Landing in Sight Points to U.S. Bull Market in History
With rate hikes nearing an end, whether U.S. stocks will rise depends on whether the economy can achieve a soft landing. Historical statistics show that if the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, the S&P 500's average cumulative returns one, two and three years after hikes stop reach 23%, 57% and 93.1% respectively. Although the U.S. currently faces the challenge of energy prices pushing up inflation, the job market has not deteriorated明显, and AI investment and productivity gains support economic growth, so the chance of a soft landing remains relatively high. If oil prices stabilize, inflation gradually cools, and corporate earnings continue to grow, it will support medium- to long-term U.S. stock performance.
Phased Allocation to U.S. Stock Funds to Capture Opportunities
羅瑤庭 suggested investors need not be overly pessimistic because of rising oil prices or the Fed's near-term rate decisions, but should also not treat an end to hikes as a guarantee of an immediate market rally. At this stage, investors should continue watching energy prices, employment changes and corporate earnings, and replace lump-sum chasing with phased investment. For fund allocation, diversified U.S. equity funds can be included, alongside Taiwan stock and technology funds, to participate in the long-term AI growth trend, while using regular investment mechanisms to keep investing and add on dips, diversifying entry-point risk and continuing to build positions amid market volatility to capture medium- to long-term growth opportunities.