Taiwan Stocks Give Back Gains as Foreign Investors Turn Net Sellers Again
After a sharp rebound of 939 points the previous day, Taiwan stocks weakened again on 10月29日, plunging as much as 980 points intraday, giving back the previous day's gains, with losses narrowing into the close, ending down 667 points at 4萬6368點, down 1.42％, with trading volume of 7904億元. Among the three major institutional investors, foreign investors net sold 688億元, dealers net sold 1.8億元, hedge net sold 213億元, with only investment trusts net buying 86億元.
U.S. Tech Earnings in Focus, Semiconductors Eye Cloud Spending
The U.S. technology sector is in earnings week, with earnings outlooks driving stock prices. Google parent Alphabet reported search advertising growth of 12％ and negative free cash flow of 90.7億美元, both below analyst expectations, with shares plunging 10.5％ after hours, becoming a concern for U.S. stocks. 國泰費城半導體（00830） fund manager 李翰林 said the key focus, in addition to whether cloud revenue can sustain growth, is whether massive AI infrastructure spending can translate into revenue and cash flow. For the semiconductor industry, cloud operators' capital expenditure plans, computing demand, and data center construction progress are important clues for evaluating subsequent orders and profits.
00830 Doubles in Scale, Pushes Split to Lower Entry Threshold
Since the beginning of this year, both the scale and number of beneficiaries of 00830 have doubled. As of 10月22日, fund assets grew 156.04% and the number of beneficiaries increased 135.27%, adding more than 11萬 beneficiaries. To lower the investment threshold, 00830 is pushing a split proposal, with electronic voting opening at 30日上午7時 and ending at 11月16日晚上11時59分, and a beneficiaries' meeting to be held on 11月19日. 李翰林 said if the proposal passes, the number of units held will increase and the net value per unit will decrease correspondingly, with total holding value unchanged excluding market price fluctuations. The split is currently estimated at 1拆5 or 1拆6, with the actual ratio subject to the meeting resolution and announcement.
U.S. Inflation Heats Up as Employment Cools, Soft Landing in Focus
「鉅亨買基金」 said that although rising energy prices have added inflation pressure, the U.S. job market has cooled significantly, with corporate hiring slowing but without large-scale layoffs, showing the economy remains resilient, and the necessity for continued rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is declining. Investment Research head 羅瑤庭 noted that the U.S. September consumer price index rose to 3.7% year-on-year from 3.4% in August, with the energy price year-on-year rate up 4.3個百分點 from the prior month, core CPI also up 0.1個百分點 year-on-year, and used cars, transportation services and rent gains also widening. September nonfarm payrolls added only 2.9萬人, far below 13.3萬人 in August and below the average monthly gain of 4.5萬人 over the past 12 months, but the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, showing low-hiring, low-layoff characteristics. Historical statistics show that if a soft landing is achieved, the S&P 500's average cumulative returns one, two and three years after stopping rate hikes reach 23%, 57% and 93.1% respectively. It recommends phased investment instead of chasing highs, with U.S. equity funds paired with Taiwan stocks and technology funds.
Korean Memory Signals and High-Dividend ETF Performance
大華 Korea KOSPI 50 (009829) manager 賴昱廷 said SK海力士 reported strong earnings, and released signals that DRAM and HBM capacity is fully sold out through 2029, with the shortage extending into 2030. As share prices have corrected and P/E ratios stand at historically relatively low levels, large funds have already positioned through related South Korea technology ETFs. The ETF's top two holdings are 三星 Electronics and SK海力士, together accounting for two-thirds of weighting, and also covering leaders benefiting from South Korea's corporate value-up program and K-Culture. Overall KOSPI constituents are forecast to post ROE of 25.2%, better than 23.9% for the S&P 500, with forward P/E remaining in the 2 to 3 times range. Separately, statistics show 25 Taiwan high-dividend ETFs averaged 57.57% inclusive-dividend performance this year, with 8 beating the broader market, including 群益半導體收益 (00927), 群益科技高息成長 (00946), 統一台灣高息動能 (00939), 國泰永續高股息 (00878), 復華台灣科技優息 (00929), 大華優利高填息30 (00918), 元大高股息 (0056), and 凱基優選30 (00938), led by 00927 with a 94.95% gain. 群益半導體收益 and 群益台灣精選高息 ETF manager 謝明志 is optimistic about Taiwan stocks' fourth-quarter performance, while 群益科技高息成長 ETF manager 洪祥益 noted short-term moves are driven by U.S.-Iran tensions, cloud operators' earnings and capital spending, and the Federal Reserve rate meeting, with a continued bullish view on AI-concept stocks over the medium to long term.