Taiwan Stocks Give Back Gains as Institutional Flows Diverge
After surging 939點 yesterday, Taiwan stocks fell on 29日, at one point plunging 980點 intraday to give back yesterday's gains, narrowing losses into the close to finish down 667點 at 4萬6368點, down 1.42％, with turnover of 7904億元. Foreign investors sold 688億元, dealers sold 1.8億元, hedge accounts sold 213億元, with only investment trusts net buying 86億元 among the three major institutional groups.
U.S. Tech Earnings Drive Semiconductor Outlook
The U.S. technology sector is in earnings week, with Google parent Alphabet reporting 12％ growth in search advertising and negative free cash flow of 90.7億美元, both below analyst expectations, sending shares down 10.5％ after hours and weighing on U.S. stocks. Cathay PHLX Semiconductor 00830 manager Li Hanlin said the focus is not only on whether cloud revenue can sustain growth, but also on whether massive AI infrastructure spending can convert into revenue and cash flow, with cloud operators' capital expenditure plans, computing demand and data center build-out progress key clues for assessing follow-on semiconductor orders and earnings.
00830 has doubled in both size and beneficiary count since the start of this year; as of 10月22日, assets have grown 156.04％ and beneficiary count has risen 135.27％, adding over 11萬 beneficiaries. To lower the entry threshold, 00830 is pursuing a split, expected at 1拆5 or 1拆6, with the actual ratio subject to the beneficiary meeting resolution and announcement. Electronic voting opens at 30日上午7時 and runs until 11月16日晚間11時59分, with the beneficiary meeting to be held on 11月19日. Li Hanlin said that after the split the number of units will increase and NAV per unit will fall, with total value unchanged excluding market price movements and investment holdings unchanged.
U.S. Inflation, Jobs and Korea High-Dividend in Focus
"Anue Fund" said U.S. 9月 CPI rose to 3.7％ from 8月 3.4％, with the energy price year-on-year rate up 4.3個百分點 from the prior month, widening gains in used cars, transportation services and rents, and core CPI up 0.1個百分點 year on year. U.S. 9月 nonfarm payrolls added only 2.9萬人, far below 8月 13.3萬人 and the average of 4.5萬人 over the past 12個月, with unemployment steady at 4.2％, showing low hiring and low layoffs. Investment Research head Lo Yao-ting noted that if the economy achieves a soft landing, average cumulative S&P 500 returns one, two and three years after rate hikes stop reach 23％, 57％ and 93.1％, recommending staged allocation to U.S. equity funds alongside Taiwan and technology funds.
Dahua Korea KOSPI 50 009829 manager Lai Yu-ting said SK Hynix posted strong earnings, signaling DRAM and HBM capacity fully sold out through 2029年 with shortages extending into 2030年. South Korea's value-up program brings forecast KOSPI ROE to 25.2％, above the S&P 500's 23.9％, with forward P/E at 2至3倍. 25檔 Taiwan high-dividend ETFs have averaged 57.57％ including dividends this year, led by Capital Semiconductor Income 00927 up 94.95％, with 8檔 including Capital Tech High Dividend Growth 00946 beating the broader market. Manager Hsieh Ming-chih is optimistic on 第四季, while Hung Hsiang-yi noted near-term swings on U.S.-Iran tensions, cloud earnings and the Federal Reserve rate meeting, remaining bullish on AI-concept stocks for the medium to long term.