Taiwan Stocks Surge 939 Points on Insufficient Volume, Raising Concerns
Taiwan stocks opened higher and moved higher on 28日, closing up 939.35 points at 47035.58 points, with trading volume at 7221億元. Chengtong Investment Consulting Vice President 陳嘉偉 said bluntly that this rebound is to let investors escape, noting Taiwan stocks had previously fallen more than 4千多點, and although rising over 900點 in a single day, trading volume failed to expand in tandem, showing insufficient price-volume coordination, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen.
Technical Signals Warn of Possible Break Below Neckline
陳嘉偉 said in his personal YT program from a technical analysis perspective that volume is the foundation of price, and price and trading volume must coordinate with each other. He reminded that if investors did not adjust positions during the sharp rise, they must carefully assess risks ahead, and warned a weak rebound may later break below the neckline. He expects Taiwan stocks will face a symmetric annual-line decline, and may even test the 5-year moving average, with market conditions in 11月 likely to be even more difficult. He stressed the Taiwan stocks M-top has been completed, the second top has begun to fall, and the bearish trend has just begun.
Perfect Storm and AI Capital Expenditure Risks
On the global environment, 陳嘉偉 believes this is a perfect storm with intertwined risks, combining bearish scenarios from the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2000 dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2010 European debt crisis. He also cited U.S. technology stocks and artificial intelligence industry capital expenditure as key risks, noting mainland open-source labs account for 70% of world Token usage, pressuring U.S. operators' profitability, plus U.S. public opposition to data center construction, construction delays, and low market acceptance of debt-funded investment; if investment returns fall short of expectations, companies may need to adjust capital expenditure plans or seek other financing methods.
台積電 Quarterly Moving Average Turns Down, Compared With Historical Declines
On bellwether 台積電, 陳嘉偉 noted the stock price showed no improvement after the 10月 earnings call, with foreign investors continuing to sell, and its current performance is far weaker than the broader market, having formed a downward-sloping quarterly moving average. He said 台積電 rarely sees its quarterly moving average turn down, with the previous time falling 32.6% due to Trump tariffs, and the time before that falling 46.2% due to the Russia-Ukraine war. By this estimate, if 台積電 falls 32.6%, a same-magnitude pullback in Taiwan stocks would be a symmetric annual-line decline; if it falls to 46.2%, Taiwan stocks would fall to about 26882 points, namely the 5-year moving average level. The stocks and expert views in this article are not investment advice; investors should make independent judgments and carefully assess risks.