Long Black Engulfing After Volume-less Rebound
After a volume-less rebound in the previous session, the Taipei stock market opened higher but moved lower today, plunging 667 points and falling nearly 980 points intraday, with the daily candlestick showing an extremely weak long-black engulfing pattern on increased volume. Analyst 陳嘉偉 noted that the market is facing a perfect storm of AI P/E revision and reduced capital expenditure. Although the market surged 939 points the previous day, turnover was only about 700 billion-plus, a typical volume-less rebound; today's decline was accompanied by expanding volume, with the long black candlestick fully engulfing the prior red candlestick body, confirming the end of the short-term rebound, with a volume-less rebound and volume on declines, indicating heavy overhead locked-in selling pressure.
Heavyweight Leaders Turn Technically Weak in Succession
From a technical perspective, heavyweight stocks were equally weak, with support indicator 台積電 falling below the quarterly moving average, 聯發科 showing a high-level reversal and pattern breakdown, and 台達電 also hitting a new swing low, indicating heavyweight leaders have turned technically weak in succession. With a volume-less rebound, volume on declines, and elevated margin balances creating dual pressure, the market views the prior rebound as an escape wave, the index still faces continued downside pressure in the short term, and may subsequently face a symmetric decline toward the yearly moving average, with further downside risk toward the five-year moving average in an extreme case.
Investor Conferences Turn Into Pressures as High-Priced Leaders Collapse
On the individual stock front, electronics investor conferences have repeatedly fallen into post-announcement selloffs on good news. Companies including 旺宏, 聯亞, 精測, 鴻勁 and 聯電 plunged or even hit limit-down despite reporting record profits or expansion plans, reflecting that in a bearish atmosphere the market interprets increased capital expenditure as oversupply. In addition, previously popular high-priced leaders and silicon photonics concept stocks such as 信驊, 緯穎, 光聖 and 上詮 have recently corrected by 30% to 60%, with elevated margin balances on the筹码 side further adding to the risk of long liquidation.
AI Valuation Reassessment Puts Hedging First for 至上
Looking ahead, U.S. tech giants showed divergent moves after earnings, with large-cap share price volatility reflecting that the market is reassessing AI industry return on investment and P/E models. When market valuation multiples are revised down, share prices will face a double hit from P/E and earnings downgrades. After pulling back from historic highs, the Taiwan Weighted Index is expected to seek next support at a symmetric decline toward the yearly moving average, and in an extreme case support near the five-year moving average cannot be ruled out. Before clear signs of stabilization and a bottom appear, investors should moderately raise cash levels or hedge, and avoid blindly averaging down.