Taiwan Stocks Plunge Below 45000 Points, Nearly 兩千點 Lost in 兩天
Taipei stocks on 10月30日 were dragged down by concerns over US tech earnings, opening low and moving lower. The weighted index closed down 1156.5 points at 45211.83 points, with intraday losses reaching 1642.07 points, briefly falling below the 4萬5000點 mark before paring losses. Ahead of Halloween, Taiwan stocks have cumulatively plunged 近兩千點 over 連續兩個交易日, with market panic clearly heating up and heavy retail selling pressure.
Guo Zherong Makes Bet: If 5萬點 Not Reached, Give Away 萬份 Chicken Steak and Bubble Tea
Facing the sharp sell-off, Moore Investment Consulting investment chief Guo Zherong said in a livestream that this plunge is a gift from the market to investors, and reiterated that the year-end target of 5萬點 for Taiwan stocks remains unchanged. He made an on-the-spot bet that if 5萬點 is not reached by year-end, he will pay out of pocket for 5000份 chicken steak and 5000杯 bubble tea. He also said that if the market falls below the 4萬點 mark again, he will raise 5000萬元 to keep adding Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050).
Criticizes Harsh View on US Tech Earnings, Points to Cash and AI Spending
On the recent sharp declines in US tech giants after earnings, Guo Zherong described Wall Street's attitude as like Asian parents, meaning the market demands harshly of corporate performance. Taking Google as an example, the market panicked over free cash flow turning negative, but he noted the company still holds 2651億美元 in cash on its books, and the cash-flow decline mainly came from heavy capital spending on AI equipment and TPU chips, which can be amortized in installments in accounting. He stressed that AI is extending from customer-service automation to administrative work and code writing, reshaping corporate competitiveness, and the long-term trend has not changed.
Cites 十年 Q4 Statistics, Bullish on Advanced Packaging and UMC Rebound
On the outlook for Taiwan stocks, Guo Zherong cited historical statistics showing that in the past 十年, the fourth quarter rose in 九年, falling only in 2018年 due to the US-China trade war, and after an October plunge, November and 12月 could see a 千點 rebound. In terms of positioning, he is bullish on advanced packaging concept stock Xintec (3374) with its strong trend, with a chance to challenge the 800至1000元 range long-term, while UMC (2303), down about 37% from its high, also looks attractive, and for ETFs he prefers Yuanta Taiwan 50 with its low management fees and high profile. He reminded investors that positions can be heavy, but absolutely no margin borrowing, to avoid being forced out by leverage during volatility.