Taiwan Stocks Fall Below Quarterly Line as Foreign Investors Cut Positions
Taipei stocks saw sharp volatility on the 29th, with the benchmark index closing down 667.25 points at 46,368.33 points, falling below the quarterly line again. The three major institutional investors sold a net 81.666 billion in local currency, including 68.815 billion in net selling by foreign investors, the main selling pressure. Market analysis noted that the ongoing Middle East situation and Russia-Ukraine war have pushed crude oil and natural gas prices higher, raising global inflation risks, while the US Federal Reserve's high-interest-rate policy direction remains unclear, raising corporate financing costs. Fed official 華許 also mentioned the impact of rate hikes on the funding chain of AI companies with high financing needs, intensifying tech stock volatility.
Google Cash Flow Turns Negative on Expanded Spending
Google parent Alphabet reported 2026 Q3 earnings, with free cash flow at negative 9.07 billion US dollars, about 294 billion in New Taiwan dollars, negative for two consecutive quarters, sparking discussion about overheated AI investment. Moore Investment Advisor Chief Investment Officer 郭哲榮 noted that the negative cash flow was not a deterioration in AI business profitability, but the company expanding capital expenditure from the 200 billion US dollar level to 3,000 billion US dollars to actively invest in AI infrastructure. He believes continued high capital expenditure by international tech giants will help 台積電 (2330), 鴻海 (2317) and other Taiwan supply chains secure orders, while cutting spending to beautify financial reports would instead hurt the supply chain.
Market Eyes Peace Talks, Targets 50,000 by Year-End
郭哲榮 believes the current decline is a funding and sentiment correction. Once geopolitical conflicts show progress in peace talks, inflation and rate-hike concerns are expected to ease, with funds likely to flow back into AI-related targets. He expects Taiwan stocks to have a chance to challenge the 50,000 mark before year-end, and to target 62,000 to 100,000 over the next three years. For investors unable to bear individual stock volatility, he suggests participating in the market long-term by holding broad-market prototype ETFs, such as 元大台灣50 (0050) or 富邦台50 (006208).
Low-Base Stock Picks, 3 Names to Watch
On stock selection, 郭哲榮 favors low-base targets. 智原 (3035) benefited from pure AI and ASIC projects, securing a single order worth tens of millions of US dollars, driving its share price to the daily limit and prompting a P/E valuation adjustment. Passive component maker 華新科 (2492) benefited from the late-session strength of Japan's Murata Manufacturing, showing relative resilience. For mature-process foundry 聯電 (2303), he noted that if the share price returns below 105 yuan, especially in the 100 to 103 range, it is a relatively low observation area. Investing still involves risks, and decisions should be made with careful evaluation at one's own risk.