Strong Night Rebound Aims to Reclaim Quarterly Line
Boosted by a 3.03% surge in TSMC ADR, TAIFEX night session surged 774 points, with TSMC futures also reclaiming the quarterly moving average, fueling expectations for a higher open in Taiwan stocks today. However, foreign investors remained net sellers in the spot market. Institutional investors noted that for the index to truly turn strong, trading volume must expand and it must effectively break above the October 29 high at 47,332 points. In the near term, focus should remain on core theme stocks such as memory, silicon photonics, and AI servers, whose momentum will drive the bulls' rebound strength.
November Faces Dual Variables
Looking to November, Taiwan stocks face two key variables. First is this week's super central bank week, with rate decisions from the U.S., Europe, and Japan due in succession. Institutional investors expect all three to stand pat, although a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve could weigh on equities. Second is the U.S. November 3 midterm elections entering the countdown, with a split Congress currently seen as most likely, helping reduce policy uncertainty. Institutional investors expect inevitable short-term volatility in Taiwan stocks, but a renewed rally after the election, continuing to target the 50,000-point mark by year-end.
Anthropic Listing Affects Supply Chain
AI industry developments are also affecting the Taiwan stock supply chain. AI giant Anthropic formally filed for an initial public offering on October 26 U.S. Eastern Time, with fundraising of up to a record $100 billion drawing high market attention, also affecting major cloud service providers and the AI supply chain including TSMC. In its prospectus, the company cited Taiwan's geopolitical risks and tight TSMC capacity as major operational concerns, underscoring Taiwan's pivotal position in current AI industry development. Meanwhile, major AI chipmakers are tying up customers with financing: Broadcom together with Bank of America and three other Wall Street giants finalized a $63 billion financing agreement to help Anthropic purchase Broadcom chips; Nvidia invested $3 billion to subscribe to new Meta shares, deepening bilateral AI cooperation.
Institutional Investors See Bulls Regaining Momentum
Taishin Investment Advisory strategist 黃文清 analyzed that the most panicked and worst moment for Taiwan stocks has passed. With a low probability of a U.S. rate hike in October, November will enter a window period favorable for bulls to regain momentum, with Taiwan stocks looking toward 48,000 points after reclaiming the quarterly line. As for the November 28 nine-in-one elections, as local elections their impact on equities is limited, with most important being an unchanged policy bias toward support, as seen in active bargain-hunting by government funds. Separately, Taipei 101 Financial Tower announced an equity transfer filing on the 27th, with Taiwan Itochu's 17.27% stake in Taipei 101 to be sold back to the Ting Hsin Wei family and taken over by Wei Ying-chiao's Cheng Mei Venture Capital. Ting Hsin Group will return to Taipei 101 after eight years and again become the single largest shareholder, with next year's board seats and management rights changes becoming a focus of attention.