Diverging Operations at Assembly Plants
Against the backdrop of continued AI infrastructure expansion, AI server shipments continued to expand, and operating performance at system assembly plants diverged. 鴻海 benefited from a higher share of full-rack shipments and the launch of new Apple models, with October revenue forecast at 1.25兆元, up 19.11% month-on-month, and a target price of up to 245元. 廣達 was relatively less impacted by the decline in traditional consumer electronics, with October revenue forecast at 4078億元, up 26.44% month-on-month. Server revenue accounts for an extremely high share at 緯穎, and with liquid cooling and new platforms gaining traction, it received a buy rating from local institutional investors with a target price of up to 2456元. Some players with higher PC business exposure face the dual test of weak consumer demand and component shortages.
Tight Foundry and Packaging/Testing Capacity
As demand for advanced processes and advanced packaging surged, foundry and back-end packaging/testing capacity is in short supply, with lead times extending to more than 5個月. 台積電 benefited from strong demand, with October revenue forecast at 5507億元, up 7.60% month-on-month, 2027 EPS forecast at 147.10元, and a target price of up to 3200元, implying upside of 34.17%. 聯電 October revenue is forecast at 265.74億元, up 1.22% month-on-month, with a target price of 169元. Prices of memory and basic raw materials rose sharply, and cost-push inflationary pressure has spread across supply-chain segments.
Pricing Effects at OSAT Firms
In packaging/testing, 日月光投控 October revenue is forecast at 881.30億元, up 7.15% month-on-month, with a target price of 862元. 力成 October revenue is forecast at 87.32億元, with a target price of 384元 and implied upside of up to 54.83%. 欣銓 October revenue is forecast at 18.38億元, with a target price of 322元, all favored by local institutional investors. From upstream foundry to downstream servers and components, cost pass-through and capacity control have become key to reading market trends.
Niche Component Makers in Focus
AI-driven specification upgrades have put specific component makers in focus. In copper-clad laminates, 台光電 benefited from shipments of high-end M8 and above products and new plant openings, with October revenue forecast at 238.52億元, up 6.88% month-on-month, 2027 EPS forecast at 232.23元, and a target price of up to 7175元. In server rails and thermal solutions, 南俊國際 benefited from expanding Vera Rubin rail shipments, with October revenue forecast up 5.48% month-on-month and a target price of 579元. Thermal major 高力, although October revenue is forecast down 10.17% month-on-month due to earlier larger shipments, still received a buy rating from local institutional investors with a target price of up to 1950元. Investors should focus on supply-chain leaders with technology barriers and substantive pass-through capability.