Payrolls Far Beat Expectations, Unemployment Rate Falls Back to 4.1%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on the 6th that October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far above the market estimate of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell back from 4.2% in September to 4.1%, with about 7.1 million unemployed. The unemployment rate has stayed in the 4.1% to 4.3% range since March this year, with limited fluctuation. The unexpectedly strong labor market led markets to increase expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields moving higher, gold prices plunging, and stock futures relatively calm.
Prior Months Revised Sharply Higher, Led by Professional Services and Healthcare
August payroll gains were revised from 133,000 to 186,000, and September from 29,000 to 60,000, a combined increase of 84,000 from prior estimates. By industry in October, professional and business services added 70,000, far above the average monthly gain of 15,000 over the past 12 months, including professional, scientific and technical services up 33,000, administrative support, waste management and remediation services up 28,000, and management of companies up 9,000, up a cumulative 269,000 since the October 2025 low. Healthcare added 42,000, above the 12-month average of 31,000, including hospitals up 16,000, home health care services up 11,000, and outpatient care centers up 5,000.
Transportation and Manufacturing Expand Together, Other Industries Flat
Transportation and warehousing added 25,000, mainly from couriers and messengers up 17,000 and air transportation up 4,000, up a cumulative 104,000 since the February low this year, of which couriers and messengers contributed 71,000. Manufacturing added 19,000, up a cumulative 101,000 since the December 2025 low, of which 中電 computer and electronic products manufacturing rose by 7,000, and machinery manufacturing and primary metals manufacturing each rose by 4,000. Employment in mining, construction, wholesale and retail trade, information, financial activities, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, other services, and government was little changed. The household survey showed unemployment rates of 3.9% for adult men, 3.6% for adult women, and 13.9% for teenagers; 3.7% for Whites, 6.6% for Blacks, 2.8% for Asians, and 4.7% for Hispanics.
Part-Time and Long-Term Unemployment Pressures Linger, Wages Up 0.4% on Month
In October, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 339,000 to 4.8 million; the long-term unemployed jobless for 27 weeks or more stood at about 2 million, accounting for 27.6% of the unemployed, little changed from the prior month. The labor force participation rate was 61.9%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.3%, both up 0.1 percentage point from September; the number of people not working but wanting work was about 6 million, little changed. On wages, average hourly earnings for private nonfarm employees rose by 14 cents to 38 dollars, up 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year; production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 12 cents to 32.75 dollars, up 0.4%. On hours, the average workweek for private employees held flat at 34.4 hours, manufacturing held flat at 40.5 hours with overtime up 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours, and production and nonsupervisory employees fell 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours.