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Paul Chan: Q3 GDP Beats Expectations With 15th Straight Quarter of Growth

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Paul Chan expects Hong Kong's third-quarter economy to grow year-on-year above expectations, accelerating from the second quarter, marking 15 consecutive quarters of positive growth, with growth in the first three quarters hitting a five-year high for the period and the full-year forecast likely to be revised up again. Supported by faster exports and solid domestic demand, investment and services exports remained robust.

Q3 Growth Accelerates With 15th Straight Quarter of Positive Growth

Financial Secretary Paul Chan said in a blog post on November 1 that Hong Kong's economy continued to improve, supported by faster export growth and solid domestic demand. Third-quarter year-on-year economic growth is expected to exceed market expectations, accelerating from the second quarter, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of positive growth. Real GDP growth in the first three quarters of this year is also expected to hit a five-year high for the period, with the full-year economic growth forecast likely to be revised up again.

Exports, Investment and Services Exports Jointly Underpin Economy

Chan noted that technological innovation is a key driver of this round of economic growth. The global artificial intelligence investment boom has driven demand for high-end electronic parts and related goods, while deep integration of industrial supply chains across Asia has benefited Hong Kong. Hong Kong's merchandise export value rose 64.9% year-on-year in September, recording double-digit growth for the 20th consecutive month, with the single-month increase hitting a more-than-40-year high, including a sharp 183.7% surge in export value of "office machines and automatic data processing instruments." On investment, private investment spending has recorded double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters, with momentum continuing into the third quarter, reflecting corporate confidence in the outlook. Services exports benefited from continued growth in inbound tourism, buoyant cross-boundary transport and active financial markets, while upcoming retail and catering revenue figures are also expected to continue posting modest growth.

Commercial Data Interchange Facilitates Over 125000 Loan Applications

Chan said innovative financial services help SMEs obtain more flexible financing at lower cost, especially by integrating different corporate operating data to more fully assess their business and credit risks, reducing collateral requirements and helping firms secure working capital. He cited Asian Development Bank estimates that unmet global trade finance demand reached US$2.5 trillion last year. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Commercial Data Interchange, launched four years ago to let banks obtain corporate business data with corporate authorization, had facilitated more than 125000 loan applications involving over HK$100 billion in credit as of September this year. Research shows banks making more active use of the platform offered SMEs lending rates on average about 36 basis points lower. The network is expanding from Hong Kong to the Yangtze River Delta and then to ASEAN. The CargoX pilot project launched in May has attracted 21 participating banks, while the HKMA and the Shanghai Municipal Data Bureau have jointly launched "Cargo Connect," with the first batch of five pilot banks able to access trade customs declaration data from the Yangtze River Delta region, approving 10 trade finance loans totaling HK$180 million as of early October. Last month Hong Kong also strengthened cross-border trade data cooperation with the PAA Digital Trade Alliance, whose members cover 15 economies including ASEAN markets.

Two Financial Gala Events Open Tomorrow, Gathering Global Leaders

Chan noted Hong Kong will host two international financial events starting tomorrow, the "Hong Kong FinTech Week" and the "Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit," bringing together fintech industry players, investors and representatives of top international financial institutions from more than 100 economies. "Hong Kong FinTech Week x StartmeupHK 2026," held over five consecutive days under the theme of connecting the world and building the future as a fintech hub, will feature its main forum at the Wan Chai Convention and Exhibition Centre, expected to attract more than 45000 participants online and offline from over 120 economies, during which the government and regulators will announce new measures on AI application and governance, tokenization applications and payment connectivity. The fifth "Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit" series will also kick off tomorrow, bringing together about 280 international financial leaders, including about 120 chairmen and chief executives of top global financial institutions, under the theme of adapting to change and breaking new ground, with AI computing power competition and investment development expected to be in focus. He added that external uncertainties such as geopolitical and economic conditions and monetary policy directions of major central banks persist, and the government will closely monitor market conditions.

FAQ

What is expected of Hong Kong's third-quarter economic performance?

Paul Chan expects third-quarter year-on-year economic growth to exceed market expectations, accelerating from the second quarter, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of positive growth, with real GDP growth in the first three quarters expected to hit a five-year high for the period.

What are the main drivers supporting Hong Kong's economic growth?

Including faster export growth and solid domestic demand, with merchandise export value up 64.9% year-on-year in September, private investment spending posting double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters, and services exports benefiting from inbound tourism, cross-boundary transport and active financial markets.

What is the scale of the two financial events starting tomorrow?

"Hong Kong FinTech Week x StartmeupHK 2026" will run for five days and is expected to attract more than 45000 participants from over 120 economies; the "Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit" will bring together about 280 leaders, including about 120 chairmen and chief executives of top financial institutions.