Hsieh Chin-ho Flags Four Pressures Behind Global Stock Plunge; Taiwan Stocks May Wait Until Next Year to Challenge 50,000

陳陳柏宏 證券線記者2026-11-05 06:02

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Democrats swept the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections. Hsieh Chin-ho says four pressures drove the global stock plunge: political upheaval, cash-burning AI arms race, tech earnings shocks, and a memory-chip price war. Taiwan stocks fell 8113 points but remain the most resilient, with 50,000 likely delayed until next year.

U.S. Midterm Upheaval Moves Markets

Democrats swept the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, leaving U.S. President Trump facing lame-duck risks and rattling global stock markets. Wealth Media Chairman Hsieh Chin-ho wrote on the 4th under the title "Trump Fails His Midterm! The World Seeks Direction Again!" that Trump claimed he lost because his name was not on the ballot, but Rome was not built in a day: U.S. bond yields kept surging, prices soared, pressure on livelihoods grew, and defeat was expected. Capital markets have fallen relentlessly since October, first pricing in expectations that Trump could lose and Republicans could lose the House and Senate.

Cash-Burning AI Arms Race Raises Concerns

The second pressure is the massive AI arms race. The four major CSP giants will spend US$745 billion in capital expenditure this year, causing heavy free-cash-flow outflows, including Amazon's 12-month free cash flow of negative US$42.36 billion, which spooked markets worried about when huge AI spending will turn into strong profits. At the same time, markets worry that Democratic-led states will resist data-center and power-system construction, and worry Texas could flip; Republicans ultimately lost Senate and gubernatorial races, with the world's richest man Musk first in the line of fire. Trump is a major backer of AI buildout, and now hobbled, markets must reassess the impact on AI's future.

Tech Earnings Shocks Hit Supply Chain

Third is the earnings shock. Besides Google and Amazon, this time Intel shocked markets, plunging 28.58% on earnings day. Many large Taiwanese companies were affected, such as Delta Electronics and Yageo, with Yageo falling to NT$417, below its low after falling from NT$1220 in July, prompting the market quip "Buy Yageo, meet in the next life," showing tech earnings weakness has spilled over to Taiwan's supply chain.

Memory Price War; Taiwan Stocks Most Resilient

Fourth is ChangXin Technology's 4F square technology crushing memory stocks. South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix had just survived a double-leverage hit and now suffered another blow, while China's Hua Hong, SMIC, and GigaDevice plunged, putting Taiwan stocks on edge these past two days. Comparing global markets, Indonesia is the worst performer this year, South Korea is nearly halved, China's Shenzhen market is down over 30%, Shanghai and Hong Kong down about 20%, and to rescue markets China's securities regulator recently suspended new IPO listings. Taiwan stocks posted the largest gains this year, and this drop of 8113 points, or 16.24%, still makes it the world's strongest market. Global markets will next consolidate and seek new direction, and Taiwan stocks may have to wait until next year to challenge the 50,000 mark.

FAQ

What are the four pressures behind the global stock plunge named by Hsieh Chin-ho?

U.S. political upheaval, the cash-burning AI arms race, tech-giant earnings shocks, and a memory-market price war, including Republicans losing the House and Senate, US$745 billion in capital expenditure by the four major CSPs, Intel's 28.58% plunge on earnings day, and ChangXin Technology's 4F square impact.

How much did Taiwan stocks fall, and how did they perform?

Taiwan stocks fell 8113 points, or 16.24%. Hsieh Chin-ho noted they posted the largest gains this year and remained the world's strongest market in this selloff, proving more resilient than Indonesia, South Korea, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hong Kong.

When can Taiwan stocks challenge the 50,000 mark?

Hsieh Chin-ho believes global markets will next adjust, consolidate, and seek new direction, and Taiwan stocks may have to wait until next year to challenge the 50,000 mark.