Oil Pushes Inflation Higher, Fed Unable to Ease
Sustained gains in international oil prices have reignited US inflation. US September consumer price index rose to 3.7% year-on-year from 3.4% in August, with the year-on-year energy price gain up 4.3 percentage points from the prior month, making it the main force pushing up inflation. In addition, price gains for used cars, transportation services and rent also widened, while core CPI added 0.1 percentage point year-on-year. 「鉅亨買基金」 investment research head 羅瑤庭 noted that higher oil prices are the main reason the Fed cannot loosen its grip; if energy prices remain elevated, they will not only raise business operating costs but may also slow inflation's return to the 2% target, keeping the Fed in a tight policy stance for longer.
Employment Cools Notably, Showing Low Hiring and Low Layoffs
In contrast to rising inflation, the US job market has gradually cooled. US September nonfarm payrolls added only 2.9萬人, far below 13.3萬人 in August and below the average monthly gain of 4.5萬人 over the past 12 months, reflecting a clear weakening in corporate hiring demand. But the September unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and initial jobless claims did not climb notably. 羅瑤庭 analyzed that this shows the US labor market is characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, meaning companies have slowed expansion without broadly cutting headcount, helping to ease inflation pressure and giving the Fed a chance to end rate hikes without triggering a recession.
Whether a Soft Landing Occurs Will Decide the US Stock Outlook
Although higher energy prices have added inflation pressure, the US job market has cooled notably, with corporate hiring slowing but no large-scale layoffs, showing the economy remains resilient and the need for continued Fed hikes is declining. 羅瑤庭 said that with hikes nearing an end, whether US stocks rise depends on whether the economy can achieve a soft landing. Historical statistics show that if the US economy achieves a soft landing, the S&P 500's average cumulative returns 1 year, 2 years and 3 years after hikes stop reach 23%, 57% and 93.1% respectively. Although the US now faces the challenge of energy prices pushing up inflation, the job market has not deteriorated notably, and with AI investment and productivity gains supporting economic growth, the chance of a soft landing remains relatively high.
Deploy in Batches into US Equity Funds, Paired with Taiwan and Technology Stocks
羅瑤庭 advised that investors need not be overly pessimistic because of higher oil prices or the Fed's near-term rate decision, but should also not treat a stop in hikes as a guarantee of an immediate stock rally. If oil prices stabilize ahead, inflation cools gradually, and corporate earnings keep growing, that will support the medium- to long-term performance of US stocks. At this stage, investors should keep watching energy prices, employment changes and corporate earnings, and replace one-time chasing with batched investment. For fund allocation, diversified US equity funds covering multiple industries can be included, paired with Taiwan equity and technology funds to participate in the long-term AI growth trend, while using a regular-investment-plus-dip-buying mechanism to keep investing regularly and add on dips, diversifying entry-timing risk and steadily building positions amid market volatility.