National Stabilization Fund Makes Tenth Intervention as Taiwan Stocks Surge Over 2600 Points
After last week's market crash, Taiwan stocks staged a strong rebound on the 9th, with the weighted index surging over 2600 points intraday, as the market watches whether this oversold bounce can continue. Analyst Guo Zherong said the National Stabilization Fund made its tenth intervention to support the market, coupled with active policy efforts to stabilize the market, making 37837 highly likely to become the relative low of this correction, while maintaining an optimistic view of challenging 50000 points by year-end.
Aiming to Reclaim 45000 Points First, Challenging 50000 Points by Year-End
Guo Zherong noted that in the short term the focus is on whether the market can reclaim 45000 points before the end of November, before challenging 50000 points by year-end. He believes that with the National Stabilization Fund already in the market, driving Taiwan stocks up by more than 2000 points, last Friday's 37837 is highly likely to be the relative low of this wave, though volume and policy continuity still need to be monitored.
Jensen Huang Affair Sparks Debate; Guo Zherong: Gossip Does Not Affect the Market
Regarding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admitting to an extramarital affair, which has raised concerns about his personal image, corporate governance and succession, Guo Zherong said this is just gossip and cannot affect the stock market. He stressed that what really matters is that OpenAI has clearly stated it will still push ahead with data center expansion and will bear its own electricity and related infrastructure costs, with AI demand now huge and no company able to accept slowing expansion.
Kalshi Bets on Stay or Departure, Market Eyes Investigation and Earnings
U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi recently launched prediction contracts on Jensen Huang's stay or departure, drawing attention. Kalshi, founded in 2018, is a prediction market trading platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, offering contracts on political elections, economic data, corporate developments and technology industry events. Each contract pays out 1 dollar if correctly predicted, equal to 100 cents, with the trading price reflecting the market's implied probability of the event occurring. On the afternoon of November 9 Hong Kong time, the contract for Jensen Huang stepping down before July 1, 2027 was quoted at about 30 to 33 cents, implying a probability of about 30%, while the probability of stepping down before January 1, 2028 once rose to 60% before falling back to about 40%. Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black questioned whether Jensen Huang can remain in office, arguing it could put short-term pressure on Nvidia's share price, especially as the company currently lacks a clear successor. However, Trump has publicly expressed support for Jensen Huang to continue as CEO, and Nvidia's board has also expressed confidence in Jensen Huang and the management team and has launched an independent investigation, with follow-up attention on the corporate governance investigation results and third-quarter earnings due on November 17.