U.S. October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far above the expected 65,000, with the unemployment rate falling back from 4.2% to 4.1%. August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000, led by professional and business services and healthcare. Markets increased bets on a December Federal Reserve rate hike, with the dollar and yields moving higher and gold plunging.
Macro & Policy
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics reported October CPI rose 2.33％ year-on-year, narrowing from 2.74％ in September, above 2％ for 6 straight months; core CPI rose 2.23％, dining-out expenses rose 3.01％, above 3％ for 5 straight months, and rent rose 1.7％.
The NT dollar is approaching 33 against the US dollar. The central bank clarified it has not restricted exporters' foreign exchange settlements, urging firms to stagger dollar sales starting in November to meet year-end funding needs, avoid one-sided expectations of continued dollar strength, and stressing the exchange rate is determined by market supply and demand.
The Taiwan dollar has depreciated NT$1.024, or 3.12%, so far in the fourth quarter, closing at NT$32.876 on the 5th and approaching NT$33. Lo Wei says weakness may persist into the first quarter of next year, and depreciation pressure may prompt the central bank to reassess monetary policy.
The NT dollar fell to an intraday low of 32.985 against the US dollar on the 5th and closed at 32.876, down 5.5 cents. The central bank announced October foreign exchange reserves fell to US$596.437 billion. Foreign Exchange Department Director General Tsai Chiung-min urged exporters not to over-expect on selling dollars and to reassess the US rate-hike outlook and dollar trend.
The Taiwan dollar fell to an intraday low of 32.985 on the 5th and closed at 32.876. Fubon Financial's Luo Wei said that until geopolitical and AI concerns are resolved the U.S. dollar will stay firm and the Taiwan dollar's weakness will be hard to reverse, and the central bank's rate policy may be gradually adjusted from the fourth quarter to early next year.
Democrats took control of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, raising market關注 over changes to the Taiwan-U.S. tariff agreement. Economics Minister Gong Ming-hsin said the policy direction is set and difficult for Congress to overturn, Taiwan will consolidate the negotiated results, the broad direction of investment cooperation remains unchanged, and mutually beneficial economic development will continue to be promoted.
The Central Bank will issue the Hla'alua coin set on 11月12日, limited to 1萬3000套 at 350元 per set, with a limit of 2套 per person, resuming the indigenous series after 15年.
Trump ordered federal documents to replace artificial intelligence with superintelligence and criticized the term AI, drawing mixed reactions in Silicon Valley; as Democrats won in multiple states in the midterm elections, local referendums largely restricting data centers could slow US AI infrastructure buildout.
The Central Bank announced that the 15th indigenous coin set featuring the Hla'alua will go on sale November 12 through Bank of Taiwan branches, priced at 350 per set with an issue of 13000 sets limited to 2 sets per person per purchase, the first release in 15 years with collectible value.
Regarding environmental groups' concerns over Kaohsiung air quality and a planned march on 8日, the Ministry of Economic Affairs stressed it will urge its subordinate units with a rigorous scientific approach to implement pollution-reduction commitments and safeguard regional air quality, noting station data must be evaluated together with atmospheric conditions.
The FSC has previewed draft licensing and management rules for stablecoin issuance and eight authorized sub-regulations under the Virtual Asset Service Act, limiting stablecoin issuance to the banking system, requiring NT$300 million in capital for non-bank issuers, raising thresholds for service providers, with a 40-day consultation period and strengthened anti-money laundering mechanisms.
Bank SinoPac's new APP suffered a glitch, with 419 customers transferred to a designated Taipei Fubon Bank account without logging in, totaling 427 transactions of over NT$40 million. The FSC has required advance repayment to customers, the APP has been removed, the Taipei Fubon account has been frozen, and a report is due before November 12.
France's economy contracted 0.1% in the third quarter, inflation rose to 3.4% in October, and Fitch downgraded its outlook to negative. Amid budget pressures, borrowing rates and political uncertainty, weak business confidence and delayed investment risk deepening the vicious cycle of stagnation.
The FSC has completed a preliminary review of life insurance combo policies. Some policies pay disease coverage and other items only from the second policy year; whether that violates waiting-period rules still needs discussion and clarification, and no fine is expected if there was no filing-procedure error.
The FSC today published draft rules for stablecoin issuance licensing and administration. Mirroring the digital-only bank model, non-bank applicants must form a joint venture with financial firms and hold no more than half the shares, with a single financial holding company or bank holding over 25%, financial firms holding over 50% combined, and minimum capital starting at NT$3億元.
In response to the salad oil supply impact from the Zhonglian Oils shutdown, the MOEA has coordinated domestic producers to raise output by 4,400 tons per month, expanded Q4 imports by 5,000 tons, and paired tariff cuts with supply-demand matching to stabilize market order and help food businesses secure raw materials.
In response to the Zhonglian Oil shutdown, the MOEA has coordinated TTET Union, Chang Hui and Taiwan Sugar to increase production by 4400 tonnes per month, and pushed for expanded imports of 5000 tonnes in Q4, paired with tariff-free treatment and supply-demand matching, to stabilize market supply order, with applications from businesses still being accepted.
The Legislative Yuan will review the additional budget tomorrow. The Taipower union says losses stem from absorbing over NT$340 billion in costs in line with the price stabilization policy, adding that adopting South Korean electricity rates would have turned losses into profits, and it urges ruling and opposition parties to support the NT$71.1 billion subsidy case.
The US Space Force has retired its last two DSP missile-warning satellites after more than fifty years of service, ending the space-based warning mission dating to 1970. The mission is now taken over by the Space-Based Infrared System, though next-generation satellites may be delayed until 2029, adding uncertainty to the future architecture.