Turbulent Week Ahead, Stability Expected After Variables Clear
International stock and currency markets have seen sharp volatility recently. Financial expert 黃世聰 said on 28日 on the show 《聰明理財大小世》 that the market is awaiting two major events: first, tech-giant earnings due out starting this week, and second, the U.S. midterm elections on 11月3日. He described the coming period as a "turbulent week," expecting stock and currency markets to stabilize once the uncertainties clear, leaving only the Federal Reserve's 12月 rate decision to watch. In addition, oil prices and U.S. bond yields have both pulled back recently, with the 10年期 U.S. Treasury yield falling below 5%, helping ease pressure on equities.
海力士 Reports Strong Earnings, Korean Stocks Show Stabilization Signals
SK海力士 today reported strong earnings, with an optimistic outlook on the memory market for next year and the year after, and announced a shareholder return plan, driving Korean stocks up about 5%至6%, possibly an early sign of stabilization. 黃世聰 noted that Korean stocks fell all the way from a high of 9385點 and broke below the annual moving average. Currently, 三星 and 海力士 trade at an estimated P/E of only about 3至4倍, far below Nvidia and 台積電's 20多倍, mainly due to the memory industry cycle, geopolitical risks, competitive pressures, and market debate over AI.
Three Focal Points in Cloud Giants' Earnings, AI May Face Short-Term Shakeout
On earnings from the three major cloud giants Google, 微軟 and 亞馬遜, 黃世聰 believes the market will examine three focal points: whether AI capital spending can deliver real returns, the scale and direction of future capital spending, and changes in free cash flow. He noted that Meta's free cash flow turned negative for the first time last quarter, and whether cash burn accelerates across companies will be a focus this time. He stressed that AI has no long-term problem, but may face a short-term industry shakeout, similar to past railway and internet bubbles.
Taiwan Stocks at High Levels, Hold Mainly and Watch Four Groups on Dips
Turning to Taiwan stocks, 黃世聰 noted that Taiwan stocks are currently around 4萬6千至4萬7千點, below the quarterly moving average and above the half-year moving average. Compared with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index already breaking below its half-year moving average and Korean stocks breaking below the annual line, Taiwan stocks are at a relatively high level, with heavy selling by foreign investors and still-high margin balances pressuring chips. He advised those already holding stocks to hold for now, while those with few holdings can buy ETFs on dips, and watch CPO, copper-clad laminate, ABF and 台積電-related ASIC groups, while closely monitoring the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Korean stocks. He also warned that 川普, through energy deregulation, regulatory easing, and policies containing China's chips, has become highly tied to the AI industry, and related industries could face uncertainty if the midterm elections go poorly.