Foreign Investors Focus on Thousand-Dollar Stocks, Unimicron 1820元 Sets New Record
Taiwan stocks rebounded strongly on the 28th, with foreign investors turning to thousand-dollar stocks that had undergone corrections but remained above the quarterly moving average. Among them, ABF substrate leader Unimicron (3037) was initiated by GF Securities with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 1,820元, setting a new record high among institutional investors. Meanwhile, JPMorgan and Citigroup Global also raised price expectations for Unimicron to 1,400元 and 1,550元 respectively; Morgan Stanley, Macquarie, Bank of America and Daiwa Capital Markets gave price expectations of 1,500元 to 1,775元, showing foreign investors are generally optimistic about the AI substrate supply-demand outlook.
AI Drives ABF Expansion, Unimicron Market Share Estimated at Over 30％
GF Securities is mainly optimistic about AI demand driving rapid expansion of the ABF substrate market. As high-end substrate prices continue to rise, the global AI ABF substrate market size is estimated to grow from 130億美元 in 2027 to 180億美元 in 2028, with Unimicron expected to capture over 30％ market share. Driven by capacity expansion and product mix optimization, GF estimates Unimicron revenues from 2026 to 2028 will reach 1,911億元, 3,033億元 and 4,022億元 respectively, with earnings per share rising from 28.58元 to 60.75元 and 89.34元. In addition, Morgan Stanley noted that Nvidia listed Unimicron as one of three partners at the GTC conference in Berlin, and plans to expand related substrate capacity to 2.5 times the original level over the next three years. Capacity pre-booked by Nvidia may cover Unimicron's Guangfu Plant II expansion plan scheduled to start in the second quarter of 2027.
Lotes Upgraded as Gross Margin Bottom Passes and Platform Opportunities Arrive
Another stock favored by foreign investors, Lotes (3533), was upgraded by Morgan Stanley to "Overweight," with its target price raised to 2,350元. Morgan Stanley believes that although rising costs of copper, gold and plastics, coupled with slower introduction of new products, continued to pressure the company's gross margin, the third quarter may have been the bottom of this gross margin cycle, with a gradual recovery expected from the fourth quarter. Morgan Stanley notes that Lotes will benefit in the fourth quarter from volume ramp-up of AMD Venice CPU sockets, while Intel Oak Stream CPU sockets are expected to join shipments in the first quarter of 2027. As new-generation server platforms accelerate, the company is expected to renegotiate prices with customers and gradually pass on higher material costs. Another Morgan Stanley industry survey shows that ODM server motherboard production, after a slight decline in the third quarter, is expected to resume growth in the fourth quarter, further supporting Lotes shipment performance.