UMC Falls Two Days in a Row After Earnings Call, Closes at 111.5

陳陳柏宏 證券線記者2026-10-31 16:10

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UMC shares fell for two straight days after its earnings call to 111.5, a cumulative drop of 12.89%. Netizens compared revenue to 2022 levels when the stock was around 50, questioning the 17x P/E ratio as still high, as bull-bear debate continues. Investors are watching the outlook.

12.89% Plunge Over Two Days After Earnings Call

Second-largest foundry 聯電 (2303) weakened after its earnings call, falling 3.46% on the 30th to close at 111.5, a cumulative two-day drop of 12.89%. The stock had earlier retreated from this year's high of 185.5, sliding all the way from 160 to 111.5, sparking market discussion over valuation and the outlook.

Revenue Comparison With 2022 Raises Questions

One netizen posted on the PTT Stock board titled "2303 聯電天下無敵討論", citing financial data from 三竹, noting that recent revenue, while higher than in 2023, 2024 and 2025, is not far from 2022 levels, while the share price surged from around 50 at that time to this year's high of 185.5. The OP argued that a higher P/E might be justified with a strong growth story, but 聯電's main business remains mature-node manufacturing, which may not support a high valuation.

The OP further noted that even after pulling back to 111.5, the P/E ratio is still 17x, saying it is "not low." He added the chart appears to be approaching the neckline of a potential M-top, raising doubts about the outlook, and asked whether the rally was backed by fundamentals or was simply liquidity-driven speculation.

Bears Call for 90 to Buy, Bulls Bet on New Themes

The post drew heated discussion. Bearish commenters saw further downside, calling for "buy at 90" and "buy at 60," saying "聯電 is hardly a tech stock, mature nodes are little different from traditional industry," "any home fab can do mature nodes, a 10x P/E for the No. 2 player is already generous," "sold at 16x, tried to bottom-fish at 13x," "without EPS growth it gets de-rated," and "bought at 40 before, with inflation, may buy again at 80." Bullish commenters argued this year is about pricing in dreams, pointing to next year's TFLN, with comments such as "with GG cutting mature-node capacity, the No. 2 player gets the first wave of overflow, utilization has indeed picked up, price hikes are modest but the market was already very conservative," "the answer is CPO and silicon interposers," and "can't 聯電 dream too, with CPO already mentioned," arguing the stock cannot be judged on current revenue and earnings alone. Investors should exercise independent judgment, evaluate prudently, and bear their own investment risks.

FAQ

How has UMC stock performed recently?

It fell 3.46% on the 30th to close at 111.5, a cumulative two-day drop of 12.89%. The stock slid all the way from 160 to 111.5, after reaching a high of 185.5 this year.

What is the netizen's main point?

Citing Mitake data, he noted recent revenue, while higher than 2023, 2024 and 2025, is not far from 2022, while the share price rose from around 50 then to 185.5. Even at 111.5, the P/E is still 17x, and with mature-node focus and a potential M-top neckline, he questioned fundamentals versus speculation.

What are the differing views on the outlook?

Bears call for 90 or 60, saying mature nodes resemble traditional industry, deserve only about 10x P/E, and lack EPS growth. Bulls say this year is about future dreams such as next year's TFLN, overflow from GG's mature-node cuts, higher utilization, and CPO and silicon interposer themes.