Taiwan Stocks Plunge 667 Points, Lose Quarterly Moving Average
Taipei stocks underwent a sharp washout on the 29th, with the weighted index plunging 667.25 points to close at 46,368.33, falling below the quarterly moving average again. The three major institutional investors sold a net 81.666 billion in total, including 68.815 billion sold by foreign investors in a single day, with heavyweight stocks under pressure together. Foundry giant 聯電 (2303) plunged 12.50 to close at 115.50 at the limit-down price, with the three major institutional investors selling a massive 158,000 lots in a single day, including nearly 129,000 lots sold by foreign investors alone. As panic spread among retail investors, veteran market analyst 周代運 said bluntly that "聯電 is really not that bad," arguing the sharp drop was essentially profit-taking on the chip front.
Valuation and Gain Gap Drove the Pullback
The market has recently compared 聯電 with fellow mature-process maker 世界 Advanced (5347), worrying whether 聯電's deeper pullback over the past month signals weakening fundamentals. 周代運 laid out the data: from a valuation perspective, 聯電's P/E ratio is only 19.25 times, far below 世界 Advanced's 34.96 times, showing 聯電 has a much thicker valuation safety cushion. In addition, 聯電's cumulative return this year is as high as 177.71%, far exceeding 世界 Advanced's 90.72%, accumulating huge unrealized profit positions, so when the broader market shook it naturally became the preferred target for profit-taking funds to cash out, not a problem with operating fundamentals.
Over 90% Utilization Supports Fundamentals
周代運 further stressed that 聯電's current capacity utilization remains firmly above the strong 90% level. Whether automotive BCD processes, power management ICs for AI servers, or microcontroller orders are all quite stable, and the trend of upward price revisions for mature processes remains unchanged, with the logic of undertaking specialty-process orders spilling over from 台積電 (2330) still intact. As for 世界 Advanced's recent relative resilience, it is purely because its smaller share capital, concentrated chips and lighter overhang from prior gains, with the gap only in short-term chip flexibility, not in actual operating strength.
Below 120 Seen as Long-Term Safe Zone
Looking ahead, 周代運 believes the overall long-term cyclical bottom is quite solid and remains bullish on 聯電's subsequent rebound. However, he also cautioned that large-cap heavyweights need time in the short term to digest this huge profit overhang, making a V-shaped reversal extremely difficult, with short-term choppy consolidation unavoidable, a stage of trading time for space. According to his prior assessment, 聯電's share price below 120 is already in a safe zone, and the current price is quite close to the bottom. Although the trigger point may not yet have arrived, further downside room is very limited, and investors can closely watch for low-level entry opportunities.