AI Buildout Expands, TSMC Takes Key Role
Artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to expand, and TSMC is seen by foreign media as a key beneficiary of this wave of demand growth. As the world's largest foundry, TSMC uses its advanced process technology to produce chips for Nvidia GPUs, Apple smartphones and other products. U.S. investment media The Motley Fool analyzes that if AI demand remains strong, TSMC still has the opportunity to substantially increase its market value by 2030.
Strong AI Chip Growth, High-Performance Computing Accounts for 70%
TSMC previously estimated a compound annual growth rate of more than 50% for AI chip sales from 2024 to 2029. Chairman Wei Zhejia, on a recent earnings call, did not provide an updated specific figure, but said market demand is extremely strong and actual growth could be higher. Some chipmakers are optimistic that demand will stay elevated in 2030 to 2031, indicating AI-related demand may continue.
In terms of business mix, about 70% of TSMC's business in the third quarter came from high-performance computing, including AI-related products, with smartphones accounting for about 20% and other industries about 10%. The development of the high-performance computing business will be an important factor affecting TSMC's future growth. In terms of overseas布局, TSMC has invested in fabs in Arizona and committed $265 billion to expand U.S. chip production capacity, helping to expand capacity and diversify production locations.
2030 Revenue and Market Value Calculation Hits New High
The Motley Fool analyst Keithen Drury presented a growth scenario calculation, using 35% annual growth in total revenue as the estimation premise, with reference to analysts' expectation that the 2027 growth rate could reach 38%. On profitability, TSMC's profit margin reached 51% in recent months, and the calculation sets the margin at 50% to leave room for conservatism. Under these assumptions, 2030 revenue could reach about $518 billion, with profit of about $259 billion. If the P/E ratio falls from the current about 28 times to 25 times, market capitalization could reach $6.5 trillion, nearly 3 times the current market value of about $2.2 trillion, and a $5,000 investment could grow to about $15,000 by 2030.