U.S. Stocks Rally Together as Anthropic IPO Ignites AI Sentiment
Wall Street rebounded sharply on the 26th, with the Dow Jones rising 146.42 points or 0.28% to close at 52361.58 points; the S&P 500 rising 53.09 points or 0.7% to close at 7676.77 points; the Nasdaq rising 214.04 points or 0.83% to close at 26169.38 points; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 304.01 points or 2.82% to close at 11083.47 points. The main driver was AI startup Anthropic filing for IPO under ticker ANT, estimated at 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion USD, reigniting market optimism. Brent crude closed at 115.81 USD per barrel, down 0.78%, while NYMEX futures closed at 101.76 USD, down 1.46%, slightly easing inflation concerns. While Taiwan was on holiday, U.S. stocks were mostly lower with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index briefly breaking bottom, and despite September export orders hitting a record high, the open on the 27th still faces catch-up decline pressure.
Tech Stocks Lead Gains as Taiwan ADRs All Rise
Meta announced plans to issue new shares and equity financing to raise up to 95 billion USD for AI infrastructure, with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom planning to subscribe for up to 5 billion USD of Class A shares in aggregate. Nvidia rose 2.39% to close at 216 USD, AMD surged 2.8% to close at 531.28 USD, Broadcom rose 2.33% to close at 329.17 USD, Tesla rebounded strongly 5.17% to close at 391.62 USD, and Microsoft closed up 1.54% after offering a voluntary separation program to about 60,000 employees. Taiwan ADRs all rose, with 台積電 ADR rising 1.4% to close at 424.37 USD, ASE ADR rising 3.15% to close at 39.91 USD, and 聯電 ADR rising 1.54% to close at 19.18 USD. The U.S. Federal Reserve meets Tuesday for its interest-rate decision, with the market expecting the benchmark rate to stay at 3.75% to 4.00%.
Foreign Investors Withdraw Over 820 Billion, Analysts Still See 55,000 to 57,000
On the筹码 front, foreign investors have sold over 820 billion in Taiwan stocks since October. According to Commercial Times and Want Rich Finance Network, Goldman Sachs observed hedge funds turning net sellers of AI holdings in October, while mutual funds cut Taiwan allocations in September to near a ten-year low. But Goldman Sachs and KGI Investment Advisory maintain a positive long-term view, pointing to 55000 points to 57500 points as the destination of this phase, with Goldman Sachs giving an Overweight rating and a 57500-point target. Goldman Sachs economists raised Taiwan's GDP growth for this year and next to 11.7% and 3.3%, forecasting corporate profit growth of 70% and 30%. KGI's 張明祥 noted the market is a bull-market correction, not the start of a bear market, and with the Q4 peak season plus year-end window dressing, digesting negatives in October favors a rebound.
Bull-Bear Turning Point: Earnings Calls and Stabilization Signals in Focus
Senior analyst 蔡明翰 noted that 台積電 reported strong earnings but fell with the broader market, with the key being the bull-bear interpretation turning to a conservative zone and market worries over AI capex payback. The key to halting the decline is not fundamentals but a narrative reversal. U.S. information technology Q3 earnings grew 67% year-on-year, semiconductors grew 135%, with Q4 semiconductors still forecast to maintain over 100% growth. This week focuses on 聯發科, 台達電, and 光寶科 earnings guidance on AI, while the U.S. watches Google, Microsoft, and Amazon earnings. Analysts attribute the pullback mainly to筹码 cleansing, margin deleveraging, and geopolitics, with state-owned and domestic funds buying on dips in 台積電, 聯發科, 國巨, 華新科, 欣興, 健鼎, 大聯大, and 至上, and 杜金龍 has bought market-cap ETFs on dips. If earnings trigger withdrawals or margin calls, the market may test the half-year line or even 45000 points or 40000 points. Stabilization depends on the NT dollar halting depreciation and rebounding, and on margin balances shrinking effectively with筹码 fully settling.