First Day After Compensatory Holiday Opens Higher Then Moves Lower, Turns Negative by Midday
After the long holiday and typhoon-holiday market closure, Taiwan stocks on 27日 ushered in the first trading day after the compensatory holiday. Boosted by sharp gains in the four major US stock indexes and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index during the closure, the Weighted Index opened higher at 46,211.20點 for a smooth catch-up rally, with intraday gains expanding to 545點 to a high of 46,585.45點. However, profit-taking pressure emerged at highs, and with the market still cautious ahead of this week's US Big Tech earnings and Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, the broader market opened higher then moved lower, turning from positive to negative before midday. As of 12:36 midday, the Weighted Index was at 45,966.61點, down 74.82點, or -0.16%, with cumulative midday turnover reaching 7,360.22億元.
謝晨彥 Names Three Major Positives Providing Support
On the outlook, Stock Professor and analyst 謝晨彥 said this week's range looks to the half-year line at 45,121點 to 47,000點, with Taiwan stocks supported by three major positives and the weekly line aiming to leave a lower shadow. First is returning funds after the long holiday, with no major negative events ahead, and buying that did not hold stocks before the holiday is expected to return gradually. Second is strong escort force from the national team, with official-share net buying in October hitting a historic single-month high, a clear policy support standard, and chip-side momentum to squeeze foreign investors and proprietary traders. Third is a steadily rising technical picture, with spot showing higher highs last week and futures showing higher lows, leaving the overall bullish structure unchanged.
Rate Decision and Tech Earnings to Drive AI Trade
謝晨彥 noted this week's market focus is on US interest-rate policy and tech earnings. On 28日 comes the interest-rate decision meeting, and from 28日至29日 tech giants including SK海力士, Microsoft, 三星電子, Intel and Amazon will report earnings, with results set to shape views on AI industry growth, corporate profits and tech valuations. Meanwhile, companies are entering the traditional peak season, with market funds driven by year-end window-dressing and institutional performance competition, and reflecting the outlook for the coming year. GDP annual growth for 2026 and 2027 is 11.7% and 3.3%, and corporate profit annual growth for 2026 and 2027 reaches 70% and 30%.
Foreign Institutions See 50,000 Level but Warn of Pullback Risk
Despite intensified short-term volatility, foreign institutions remain broadly positive. Among major research houses, Goldman Sachs is optimistic Taiwan stocks could reach 57,500點, while KGI Securities projects 55,000點, showing some institutions still favor medium-to-long-term performance, with domestic and foreign investors seeing a move toward the 50,000 level. However, analysts remind that pullback negatives include rising AI financing risk, inflation and rate-hike concerns, geopolitical tensions, and intensified competition in some tech industries, which could amplify short-term volatility. Investors still need to watch the latest changes in Big Tech earnings and interest-rate policy.