Index Consolidates at Highs, AI Theme Unchanged
Taiwan stocks have recently faced multiple disturbances including U.S. rate-hike expectations, reduced foreign-investor holdings and geopolitics, with the index entering high-level consolidation in the fourth quarter. However, local institution Capital Investment Advisory noted Taiwan's economic fundamentals remain resilient this year, estimating full-year GDP growth of 11.05%. In addition, 台積電 gave an optimistic outlook with 4Q U.S. dollar revenue estimated at US$5.23 billion to US$5.43 billion and full-year revenue expected to grow about 44%, leaving the long-term AI bull theme unchanged. With domestic capital support and fundamentals intact, market volatility is instead an opportunity to weed out laggards and buy quality growth stocks on weakness.
Strong Momentum in AI Servers and High-Speed Transmission
Driven by the AI server and high-speed transmission specification upgrade wave, related supply chains show operating momentum. Benefiting from high-end coated drill needles and drilling demand, 尖點 (8021) sees support at NT$460 and resistance at NT$570; 高僑 (6234), tapping into AI and optical communications with monthly capacity expanded by over 70%, sees support at NT$46 and resistance at NT$59. 頎邦 (6147), capturing 1.6T and 3.2T optical transceiver module packaging, sees support at NT$180 and resistance at NT$230; 宏致 (3605), winning orders from a major North American CSP, sees support at NT$145 and resistance at NT$190. Benefiting from AI and HPC chip testing demand with order visibility extending to 2027, 精測 (6510) sees support at NT$2900 and resistance at NT$3700.
Traditional blue chips and Key Materials Support the Market
Traditional and heavyweight groups also have highlights. With second-quarter triple-margin expansion and U.S. market growth, 美食-KY (2723) sees support at NT$82.5 and resistance at NT$92.5; 東陽 (1319), benefiting from the AM auto parts peak season and tariff cuts, sees support at NT$80.1 and resistance at NT$86. With strong core precision machining and entry into the Apple foldable phone supply chain, 運鋁 (2069) sees support at NT$26.8 and resistance at NT$31; 視陽 (6782), with first-half EPS of NT$8.45, sees support at NT$258 and resistance at NT$293. Optimistic on Q4 revenue warming and negotiating large CCL orders, 南亞 (1303) sees support at NT$275 and resistance at NT$380; 穩懋 (3105), benefiting from volume production of data-center optical receiver components, sees support at NT$450 and resistance at NT$560. Raising full-year AI server revenue growth to over 100% year-on-year, 華碩 (2357) sees support at NT$900 and resistance at NT$1040; demonstrating glass substrate TGV technology, TPK-KY (3673) sees support at NT$68.5 and resistance at NT$88.
Semiconductor, Financial Targets and ETF Allocation
In key components, 矽力*-KY (6415) sees support at NT$453 and resistance at NT$596; 欣興 (3037), holding GPU and ASIC server orders, sees support at NT$1050 and resistance at NT$1400; deepening collaboration with NAND makers, 群聯 (8299) sees support at NT$1740 and resistance at NT$2300. Benefiting from advanced processes and HBM4 demand, 創意 (3443) sees support at NT$7320 and resistance at NT$9650; high-speed connectivity chips maker 瑞昱 (2379) sees support at NT$706 and resistance at NT$928. With urgent demand for high-end fiberglass, 建榮 (5340) sees support at NT$90 and resistance at NT$120; developing electronic-grade hydrogen equipment, 台化 (1326) sees support at NT$70 and resistance at NT$90. With strong first-9-month net profit and market capitalization exceeding NT$1 trillion, 台新新光金 (2887) sees support at NT$40 and resistance at NT$49; expanding high-end HDI capacity, 臻鼎-KY (4958) sees support at NT$550 and resistance at NT$650; tapping into migrant-worker remittances and AI cybersecurity, 東聯互動 (7738) sees support at NT$153 and resistance at NT$190. On ETFs, Cathay 20-Year U.S. Bonds (00687B) sees support at NT$23 and resistance at NT$28, CTBC Small-Cap Value 30 (00894) sees support at NT$38 and resistance at NT$55, Nomura Taiwan New Technology 50 (00935) sees support at NT$46 and resistance at NT$72, and 大華優利高填息30 (00918) sees support at NT$30 and resistance at NT$40.