Open-High-Move-Low Is Not Fundamental Deterioration
Taipei stocks on 27日 traded choppily after opening high, narrowly closing in positive territory, up 54.8 points to close at 46096.23 points, with turnover of 新台幣9765.47億元. After the holiday, Taiwan stocks showed an open-high-move-low washout pattern, with the OTC index and TAIFEX futures later turning negative and fluctuating, leaving many investors worried and uneasy about the outlook.
摩爾投顧 investment chief 郭哲榮 said the culprit behind this volatility was not fundamental deterioration, but high funding-cost pressure triggered by geopolitics. He reminded that Q4 is the season with the highest long win rate of the year, and investors should absolutely not stay empty-handed.
Tight Geopolitics Push Up Funding Costs, 長榮航 Resumption Hides Signal
郭哲榮 explained that tight Middle East conditions and the Ukraine-Russia war have sharply raised crude oil transport costs, continuing to intensify global inflation and rate-hike expectations. In a high-rate environment, borrowing costs have climbed, putting funding pressure on highly leveraged cloud and AI companies heavily reliant on leverage and leased servers, thereby dragging on U.S. and Taiwan stocks. Market caution over receding liquidity became the main suppressing force behind the open-high-move-low pattern.
He specifically noted that 長榮航 recently returned to the Arctic Circle great-circle route, resuming flights over Russian airspace, reflecting substantive breakthroughs in high-level U.S.-Russia talks. He predicted that once Middle East and Ukraine-Russia conditions ease before the U.S. election or year-end, cooling crude freight rates will trigger retreating inflation, with funds flowing back into equities. However, airlines remain low-key, and industry and scholars view this as a single-point test or flexible scheduling for the winter schedule, with whether it marks a full, normalized resumption still depending on geopolitical and air-rights coordination results.
Q4 Focus on Old AI and Low-Base Groups
Facing short-term volatility, 郭哲榮 recommended focusing on low-base and highly sheltered groups. Old AI names include 廣達 (2382), 緯創 (3231), 鴻海 (2317), currently with low P/E ratios, some only around 8 times, combining safety and explosive potential. Low-base old electronics such as 微星 (2377), whose share price has barely moved in recent years, have catch-up opportunities. IC design leader 聯發科 (2454) pullback is a buying point, memory watch 華邦電 (2344), silicon wafers favor 環球晶 (6488), 台勝科 (3532), all lower-positioned upstream targets. Those not skilled at stock picking can use dollar-cost averaging or staged positioning in market-cap ETFs such as 元大台灣50 (0050) to avoid being empty-handed in the Q4 market.