Elevated Margin Balances and Unsettled Chips Raise Pre-Election Selling Risk
Taiwan stocks have seen intensified volatility recently. Senior analyst 李永年 said on the YouTube program《小宇宙大爆發》 that chasing sentiment remains strong, but margin balances remain at elevated levels. If chips fail to settle, a wave of selling pressure cannot be ruled out before the 11月28日 nine-合一 elections. He estimates the high of this rally may reach 5萬500 to 5萬2500點, and if the rally is driven by margin financing, a reversal could trigger heavier stop-loss selling.
李永年 noted that in a subsequent correction, the index could pull back to 3萬5000 to 3萬7000點, possibly in 2027年上半年, though an early move before the election in 今年11月 cannot be ruled out. He reminded investors to watch both the broader market trend and whether individual company earnings can keep pace with share price gains as key risk indicators.
AI Server Revenue Rises but Margins Fall, Contract Makers Face Cost Pressure
AI server demand has boosted revenue at 鴻海, 廣達 and 緯創, but increased orders have not translated into equal profits. 鴻海 gross margin fell from 6.35% to 6.12%, 廣達 declined from 6.85% to 5.02%, and 緯創 also dropped from 7.39% to 5.66%, showing cost and profit pressure amid expanded shipments.
Server rail maker 川湖 once traded at nearly 80倍 price-to-earnings, and still trades at over 50多倍 after a pullback. 李永年 believes a typical manufacturer trades at around 25倍, and 35至40倍 already reflects an optimistic valuation including growth potential. On memory, 南亞科 faces supply-demand risks, as large data centers are gradually completed and 中國長鑫存儲 continues to expand capacity, potentially increasing supply of commodity memory and cooling the cycle.
Bullish on 台積電 Advanced Processes, 2027年 EPS Estimated at 155元
李永年 remains bullish on 台積電 advanced process competitiveness, arguing that even as Google, 微軟, 亞馬遜 and Meta develop in-house AI chips, they will still likely rely on 台積電 for manufacturing as long as advanced processes are required. He estimates 台積電 2027年 earnings per share will reach 155元, implying a fair target price of 3875元 at 25倍 price-to-earnings, with levels below 2500元 worth watching.
台達電 benefits from AI data center demand for power, power management and cooling equipment. 李永年 estimates 2027年 earnings per share of about 62元, implying a fair target price of about 1550元 at 25倍 price-to-earnings.