Index breaks below 45000點 and half-year moving average
Taiwan stocks on 30日 opened lower and moved lower, with the intraday low reaching 44768.39點, plunging nearly 1600點 from the previous close of 46368.33點, breaking below the 45000點 integer level and the half-year moving average around 45280點 in one move. 台積電 once fell 50元 to 2365元, losing the half-year moving average at the open; 台達電, 友達, 智原 hit limit-down, while 聯發科, 日月光投控, 大立光 all fell over 5%. The previous trading day on 29日 had already plunged 667點 and lost the quarterly moving average, with moving-average supports falling in two consecutive trading days.
US tech earnings trigger AI valuation concerns
The direct trigger came from US tech giants’ earnings. Alphabet’s third-quarter revenue and profit missed expectations, free cash flow was negative for two consecutive quarters, while full-year capital expenditure remained at 1950億至2050億美元, sending its shares down about 12%. Amazon posted negative free cash flow of 424億美元, with its full-year 2200億美元 capital expenditure target unchanged, falling about 7.5% after hours. Intel plunged about 23% after hours on conservative fourth-quarter guidance and an explosion at its Israel fab. 葉育碩 noted the market has begun to scrutinize AI investment costs and the timeline for returns; 李其展 described this quarter’s earnings as mixed, with limited upside for good results and sharp declines for bad ones.
Hotter inflation and foreign-investor selling pressure
Macro conditions were also unfriendly. US September PCE rose 0.5% month-on-month, the largest increase in half a year, while third-quarter economic growth was the fastest in a year. The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75%至4.00%, and White House National Economic Council Director 哈塞特 hinted at a possible further rate hike if October inflation runs hot. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, above expectations, having already hit Taiwan stocks once. Foreign investors sold a net 688億元 on 29日, with the three major institutional investors selling a combined 816億元, and net short positions in TAIFEX futures approaching 9萬口; from October to the 19日, foreign investors had sold 6620億元, with cumulative net selling of over 2.1兆元 this year. The New Taiwan dollar closed at 32.492元 on 29日, weakening to 32.597元 intraday, with Central Bank Governor 楊金龍 acknowledging that large foreign-investor outflows were the key reason for its weakness.
Float not yet cleaned; institutions urge holding cash
Securities analyst 張陳浩 believes when selling pressure will stop depends on four indicators: stabilization in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, foreign investors’ stance on AI, stabilization of the New Taiwan dollar, and valuations. Market instructor 張真卿 noted that during the sharp declines in April and July, the decline in margin balances exceeded the market’s decline, but in the current wave the margin decline has not exceeded the market decline, and margin balances even increased after the 939點 rebound on 28日, indicating floating shares still need to be cleaned, warning of a possible retest of around 45200點. 張真卿 and 葉育碩 both cautioned that now is not the time to chase a rebound, and investors should control risk and hold cash; 黃文清 believes bottoming conditions are already in place with short-term range consolidation, while 郭哲榮 interprets major firms’ expanded AI infrastructure spending as long-term positive. Institutions recommend avoiding excessive leverage, with focus ahead on US midterm elections and inflation data.