Plunge in Philadelphia Semiconductor leaves U.S. stocks all in the red
U.S. technology stocks faced renewed selling on 10月30日, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 7.2% and all four major U.S. indexes closing lower, as selling pressure continued to come from market concerns over AI investment costs. 亞馬遜 continued to expand AI capital expenditure, while 英特爾 flagged cash-burn warnings, with both 第三季 earnings missing expectations, including 英特爾 shares plunging over 28%. 台積電 ADR fell 5.95% in tandem to close at 406.13美元.
Night-session plunge below intraday low
Dragged by U.S. stocks, Taiwan stock index futures night session ended down 867 points, or 1.91%, closing at 44433 points, already below the Friday intraday low of 44726.26 points. 台積電 futures closed at 2289元, down 87元, 81元 below 台積電 Friday spot close of 2370元. Electronics futures fell 99 points, with electronics heavyweights likely to bear the brunt on Monday.
Taiwan stocks lose half-year line, chips remain weak
Taiwan stocks on 10月30日 at one point plunged 1642 points intraday to a low of 44726.26 points, ending at 45211.83 points, down 1156.5 points, or 2.49%, with turnover of 8777.3億元, losing the half-year moving average. 台積電 closed at 2370元, down 45元. Chips were similarly weak, with the three major institutional investors selling a net 1398.44億元 combined, including foreign investors selling 1124.67億元 and dealers selling 513.7億元, with only investment trusts buying 239.93億元 for a 14th straight day. Since October, the three major institutional investors have sold a cumulative 1兆1983億元.
Margin balances unwashed, quarterly line becomes key
Senior analyst 何金城 noted on the program 《財經起床號》 that the biggest problem for Taiwan stocks now is margin balances refusing to retreat, with margin balances even increasing after the prior-day plunge, indicating retail investors are still aggressively betting on a rebound and leaving the market relatively unstable. He sees two major key signals for a market stabilization. Securities analyst 張陳浩 also believes the market has fallen below the quarterly moving average and must quickly reclaim it next week, otherwise the consolidation period may be prolonged, margin cleansing remains insufficient, and a conservative stance is warranted before chips settle, though some quality stocks have fallen into value territory.
Post-midterm focus on defensive positioning
The U.S. will hold midterm elections next week. 何金城 said that according to statistics since 1957, the probability of U.S. stocks rising from November through end-December after midterm elections is as high as 84%, but 川普 polling below 40% has fueled market worries that the Republican Party could lose both chambers, which is the main reason for sharp pre-election market volatility. Cathay SITE Senior Vice President 鄭立誠 expects turbulence may stabilize after the election, remaining long-term bullish on the AI investment theme. On strategy, 何金城 suggested no need for excessive panic, watching government-supported financial stocks, 中華電信 and other defensive targets, avoiding high-level stocks, focusing on stocks with record-high October revenue and better-than-expected 第三季 earnings, while strictly setting a 10% stop-loss.