Taiwan stocks have recently fluctuated violently, and investors are closely watching when the correction will end. Investment veteran 張真卿, with 40 years of stock market experience, believes Taiwan's economic growth is strong and AI industry demand remains robust, and the fundamentals supporting the long-term rise of Taiwan stocks have not changed, but short-term funding pressure remains, so investors should not rush to guess the bottom and chase a rebound.
Funding Pressure Unresolved, Short-Term Volatility to Continue
張真卿 points out that the funding environment deserves attention. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, Taiwan's funding costs have also risen slightly, and with the depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar and shrinking foreign buying, this is indeed short-term pressure on Taiwan stocks. Before funding and chips show a turnaround, investors should wait patiently rather than enter rashly.
After Midterm Elections, Eyes on Q4 Rally
張真卿 says the period after the U.S. midterm elections is an important observation point. If market uncertainty eases and Taiwan stocks successfully bottom out, it could become a new starting point for a Q4 rally. At this stage, first watch whether the half-year line can hold, then observe whether margin financing has been reduced and whether the Taiwan dollar can stop depreciating. Only when buy signals appear is it a steadier approach. Entering before chips are fully washed out could meet another wave of decline.
4 Buy Signals and 10% Trial Order Strategy
He proposes 4 buy signals. First is the technical side: the index does not make new lows for 3 consecutive trading days, reclaims the 5-day moving average, and the 5-day line starts turning upward; second is the chip side: the decline in margin financing is greater than the market decline, indicating chips have been effectively washed out; third is the funding side: the New Taiwan dollar no longer continues to depreciate, preferably turning from depreciation to appreciation, attracting foreign capital back; fourth is the index position: watch whether it tests the half-year line or approaches the downside target of the golden ratio. Among them, the New Taiwan dollar trend is key. Taiwan's export performance is strong, and companies have accumulated a lot of U.S. dollars. With demand for year-end bonuses and goods payments increasing, companies may gradually convert U.S. dollars back to Taiwan dollars, driving the New Taiwan dollar from depreciation to appreciation. Only when the Taiwan dollar turns from depreciation to appreciation will foreign capital return, giving an advantage in timing near year-end. If the Taiwan dollar stops depreciating and rebounds and margin financing also declines significantly, the chance of Taiwan stocks bottoming will increase. For entry strategy, the more of the 4 conditions met, the higher the odds, but there is no need to bet full funds at once. First use 10% of funds to test the waters. If the purchase is profitable, the direction is right, then gradually add positions.