Night Session Rebounds Above Quarterly Line
Boosted by a 3.03% surge in TSMC ADR, TAIEX night futures jumped 774 points, while TSMC futures also reclaimed the quarterly moving average, reviving bullish market confidence. However, foreign investors remained net sellers in the spot market. Analysts noted that for the index to truly turn strong, trading volume must expand and it must effectively break above the pressure zone at last Thursday's high of 47332 points. In the short term, focus will center on core thematic stocks including memory, silicon photonics, and AI servers, whose momentum will drive the rebound.
Super Central-Bank Week and Election Variables
Taiwan stocks face two key variables in November. This week's super central-bank week brings rate decisions from the U.S., European, and Japanese central banks in succession. Analysts expect all three central banks to stand pat, but a hawkish Federal Reserve stance could weigh on equities. In addition, the U.S. November 3 midterm elections are entering the countdown, with markets expecting a split Congress as the most likely outcome, helping reduce policy uncertainty. Overall, short-term volatility for Taiwan stocks is unavoidable, but a post-election rally is expected, with a continued year-end push toward the 50000-point mark.
Analysts See Window Favorable for Rebound
Wen-Ching Huang, chief strategist at Taishin Investment Advisory, said the most panicked and worst moment for Taiwan stocks has passed. With a low probability of a U.S. rate hike in October, Taiwan stocks will enter a window period in November, favoring a renewed bullish push, targeting 48000 points after retaking the quarterly line. As for the November 28 nine-in-one elections, as local elections their impact on the stock market is limited; most important is that the pro-market policy stance remains unchanged, as seen in the National Stabilization Fund actively buying on dips. Stocks and the currency recovered in tandem; the Taiwan dollar's subsequent trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's decision.
Anthropic IPO and AI Supply Chain
AI giant Anthropic formally filed for a public listing on October 26 Eastern Time, with fundraising of up to a record 100 billion U.S. dollars, affecting major cloud service providers and the AI supply chain including TSMC. In its prospectus, Anthropic cited Taiwan geopolitical risks and tight TSMC capacity as major operational concerns, highlighting Taiwan's pivotal position in the AI industry. Separately, Broadcom teamed up with Bank of America and three other Wall Street firms to finalize a 63 billion U.S. dollar financing deal to help Anthropic purchase Broadcom chips; Nvidia invested 3 billion U.S. dollars to subscribe to new Meta shares, deepening AI cooperation. In addition, Taiwan Itochu's 17.27% stake in Taipei 101 will be sold back to the Ting Hsin Wei family, to be taken over by Ying-Chiao Wei's Cheng Mei Venture Capital, with Ting Hsin returning to Taipei 101 after eight years as the single largest shareholder.