Geopolitics Shows Glimmer of Hope as Funds Flow Back
Taiwan stocks showed strong bullish momentum on the 28th, with the weighted index closing up 939.35 points at 47035.58 points, with turnover of 7221.35億元, while futures briefly rose by more than 1,000 points intraday. 摩爾投顧 investment chief 郭哲榮 noted the core driver of the rebound was a turn in geopolitics, with the US-Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war showing a glimmer of peace talks, prompting sidelined funds to flow back quickly.
Prolonged conflict in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine has pushed up oil prices and inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, with high borrowing costs pressuring highly funding-dependent AI companies. 郭哲榮 analyzed that Iran's supreme leader has sent negotiating signals, with both sides sharing common ground in seeking peace through strength, and if a peace agreement is reached, cooling oil prices and inflation will lower corporate funding costs, with suppressed AI technology stocks expected to see funds flow back, potentially pushing the broader market higher by another 1,000 to 2,000 points.
AI Efficiency Gains Draw Attention to Employment Impact
Beyond funding conditions, the impact of AI technological advances on the job market is also in focus. Global tech giant Microsoft plans to streamline up to 60,000 employees, reflecting the trend of companies adopting AI to boost efficiency and cut traditional headcount. 郭哲榮 believes that rather than worrying about unemployment, investors should deploy into AI supply chains such as ASIC chips, autonomous driving and robotics, treating investment in AI stocks as personal unemployment insurance, turning technology dividends into capital gains to hedge career risk.
Low-Base Stocks to Take Over, Four Directions Named
On stock allocation, 郭哲榮 named strong stocks and low-base rebound stocks: 華新科 (2492) was positioned near 369元 and then surged nearly 7% in a single day, with波段 profit already reaching 44%, demonstrating the explosive power of low-base passive components; 精材 (3374) benefited from a strong technical pattern, with its share price soaring from a low of 180 to 190元 to 500元, a波段 gain of up to 159%, already far from the cost zone, and investors should not chase highs blindly; 智原 (3035) features ASIC customized-chip themes with a relatively low base, with rebound momentum anticipated; on the memory group, AI server demand for high-performance memory remains in focus, with SK海力士's strong earnings helping South Korean stocks complete a bottom, with the long-term memory shortage and demand trend established, and pullbacks at lows remaining opportunities to position.