Index Back Above Quarterly Average, Support Seen at 46000
The TAIEX surged 939.35 points to close at 47035.58 on the 28th, retaking the 47000 mark and climbing back above the quarterly moving average. Veteran analyst Du Jinlong said that after a sharp correction, Taiwan stocks have shown support near 46000. With stabilization buying stepping in and market chips gradually settling, the year-end rally from late this year into early next year is worth anticipating, and the follow-through rebound momentum bears watching.
Margin Debt Shrinks as Chips Settle, Equity Position Raised to 70%
Facing heavy selling by foreign investors this year, Du Jinlong observed the market finding support near 45676, with short-term margin debt shrinking quickly and the chip structure turning cleaner. He views sharp pullbacks as buying opportunities, and has raised his equity position from 60% to over 70%. He disclosed three entry points: the first on weakness during the market's sharp pullback, the second around the U.S. election, and the third around Taiwan's election from November 27 to 29.
Year-End Rally Seen Extending Into Next Year, Eyeing 60000
Du Jinlong expects Taiwan stocks to launch a year-end rebound starting in late November, with the rally potentially lasting until early February 2027 or even May. Based on wave theory, he puts the upside target at 53000 to 60000, with some foreign brokerages even calling for 57000, indicating the bull structure remains intact.
On stock picks, Du Jinlong named TSMC, Unimicron and Nan Ya Plastics. TSMC was accumulated in batches at 2420 and 2390, with support watched near 2380. Foreign brokerages see a long-term target price of 5000, and it closed at 2425 on the 28th, up 25. Investors should watch advanced-process demand, AI chip momentum and foreign buying and selling ahead. Unimicron was positioned at 1090, with a positive outlook from its investor conference and institutional target prices of 1500 to 1800, and its mainstream status could extend to 2028. Nan Ya Plastics saw record turnover, with reinvestments in Nan Ya PCB and Nanya Technology lifting book value per share. Institutional target prices have been raised to above 400, making it a year-end catch-up focus.