Taiex Reclaims 47,000 Points as 杜金龍 Eyes Year-End Rally

吳吳孟哲 國際財經記者2026-10-29 04:00

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The Taiex surged 939.35 points to close at 47035.58 on the 28th, reclaiming the 47000 level and its quarterly moving average. 杜金龍 sees support holding around 46000 and has raised his holdings to 70%, naming TSMC, Unimicron and Nan Ya, and expects a year-end rally starting in late November toward 60000.

Index Reclaims 47000 and Quarterly Moving Average

The Taiex gained 939.35 points on the 28th to close at 47035.58, retaking the 47000 mark and moving back above its quarterly moving average. Known as a market veteran, 杜金龍 believes that after a sharp correction, the market has shown support around 46000, with strong support near 45676. With state-backed buying entering the market and margin positions rapidly washed out, the chip overhang has gradually stabilized, making the year-end rally into early next year worth anticipating.

Buying on Dips, Holdings Raised to 70%

As foreign investors sold heavily this year and many retail investors panicked amid volatility, 杜金龍 argues that sharp pullbacks are the best buying opportunities. Seeing a bottom emerge, he has raised his own position from 60% to over 70%. He highlights three key entry windows: the first on a steep market pullback to buy low, the second around the U.S. election, and the third around Taiwan's election from November 27 to 29. He expects the Taiex to launch a full year-end rebound starting in late November, potentially lasting into early February 2027 or even May.

Wave Theory Points to 53000 to 60000

For target levels, 杜金龍 uses wave theory to project an upside target of 53000 to 60000, with foreign brokerages even calling for 57000, supporting the view that the bull-market structure remains intact. Overall, the nearly 1,000-point surge on the 28th back above 47000 has injected rebound momentum into the recent choppy market, though follow-through will depend on continued support buying, foreign-investor flows, and further stabilization of the chip overhang.

TSMC Unimicron Nan Ya in Focus

On individual stocks, 杜金龍 names TSMC 2330, Unimicron 3037 and Nan Ya 1303. TSMC was bought on dips at 2420 and 2390, with very strong support seen near 2380, while foreign research is bullish on a long-term target of 5000. It closed at 2425 on the 28th, up 25, with focus ahead on advanced-process demand, AI-chip growth momentum and foreign-investor flows. Unimicron, the ABF substrate leader, was bought at 1090, with a bright outlook presented at its investor conference and institutional targets of 1500 to 1800, its mainstream position expected to extend into 2028. Nan Ya saw record turnover with successful hand-over of shares, and as reinvestments Nan Ya PCB and Nanya Technology lift its book value per share, foreign and domestic institutional targets have been raised to above 400, making it a key year-end catch-up play.

FAQ

Why did 杜金龍 raise his holdings to 70%?

He believes the index found strong support near 45676, and with state-backed buying entering and margin positions washed out leaving a cleaner chip overhang, the base around 46000 is holding, so he raised his position from 60% to over 70%.

What is the timeline and target for the year-end rally?

The three entry points are a steep market pullback, around the U.S. election, and around Taiwan's election from November 27 to 29. The rebound is expected to start in late November and run into early February 2027 or even May, with a wave-theory target of 53000 to 60000 and foreign brokerages calling for 57000.

What is the focus for TSMC, Unimicron and Nan Ya?

For TSMC, watch support at 2380, advanced-process and AI-chip momentum; it closed at 2425 on the 28th. For Unimicron, watch ABF demand and its investor-conference outlook, with institutional targets of 1500 to 1800. For Nan Ya, watch catch-up strength after record turnover, with institutional targets above 400.