U.S. Tech Stocks Lead Declines, Drag Taiwan Stocks Lower at Open
U.S. stocks were mixed on the 29th, with technology stocks as the main source of selling pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 132.54 points to close at 52342.56 points, down 0.25%; the S&P 500 fell 23.59 points to close at 7720.39 points, down 0.30%; the Nasdaq fell 365.13 points to close at 26184.72 points, down 1.38%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.42%, ending four consecutive trading days of gains. TSMC ADR fell 1.75% to close at 431.81 U.S. dollars. Taiwan stock index futures fell to 45926 points in the after-hours session on the 29th, down 643 points from the reference opening price of the post-market trading session, a decline of about 1.38%; TSMC futures closed at 2390 NT dollars, down 30 NT dollars.
Taiwan stocks opened at 46139.79 points on the 30th, down 228.54 points, before selling pressure broadened. According to market quotes at 9:08 a.m., the index at one point reached 44898.79 points, plunging 1469.54 points, falling below not only 46000 points but also the 45000-point integer level. TSMC opened at 2380 NT dollars, down 35 NT dollars from the previous trading day's closing price of 2415 NT dollars. A decline in futures after-hours trading does not mean spot prices will necessarily open lower by the same number of points, as actual spot prices remain affected by opening orders and transaction prices of heavyweight stocks; today's widening decline shows market risk sentiment has further weakened.
Market Re-examines Returns on AI Capital Expenditure
One backdrop to this correction is that the market is re-examining the financial returns of large technology companies' investments in AI infrastructure. After Google parent Alphabet reported third-quarter results that differed from market expectations, and as investors focused on high AI infrastructure spending, its share price plunged 12.64% on the 29th. Semiconductor and high-speed connectivity-related stocks also weakened, with Marvell plunging about 13%, affecting the market's short-term valuation of the AI hardware supply chain.
In recent years, technology giants have continued to increase investment in data centers, AI computing chips, networking equipment and power facilities, driving supply-chain demand. However, as investment scale expands, the market is watching when new capital expenditure will translate into revenue, profit and free cash flow. This does not mean AI demand has reversed, but valuation standards may be changing, shifting from valuing whether companies invest in AI and secure orders to valuing actual profits, cash flow and payback periods. For Taiwan stocks, which are concentrated in semiconductors and the AI supply chain, this change may amplify the impact of the international technology stock correction.
Heavyweight Stocks and Foreign Investor Moves Are Key Focus
On the 29th, Taiwan's benchmark index fell 667.25 points to close at 46368.33 points, down 1.42%, with an intraday low of 46055.07 points. TSMC closed at 2415 NT dollars, down 10 NT dollars; MediaTek fell 190 NT dollars to close at 4045 NT dollars; Hon Hai closed at 248 NT dollars, down about 1.39%. According to the Taiwan Stock Exchange's statistics on the three major institutional investors on the 29th, foreign and mainland investors, excluding foreign proprietary trading, sold a net of about 688.15 billion NT dollars in super-large lots, proprietary dealers sold a net of about 215 billion NT dollars, while investment trusts remained net buyers, with different institutions trading in different directions.
Going forward, it will be necessary to watch whether the decline spreads from TSMC, MediaTek and other large technology stocks to PCB, cooling, memory, equipment and other groups, whether trading value expands, and whether financial and traditional industrial stocks can prove relatively resilient. If declines are accompanied by expanding trading value, it may reflect stronger selling pressure; if buying support emerges, the decline may narrow. In the short term, it will be necessary to watch whether electronic heavyweights stabilize, changes in volume, whether foreign investors sell for consecutive sessions, and fluctuations in the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate.