Opened Low and Moved Lower to Lose Half-Year Line, Turnover Exceeds 8777億元
The Taipei stock market on the 30th was affected by concerns over the artificial intelligence outlook triggered by U.S. tech earnings, with the weighted index opening low and moving lower. It closed down 1156.5 points at 45211.83 points, down 2.49%, with total turnover 達新台幣8777.3億元. Intraday selling pressure expanded rapidly, falling as much as 1642.07 points to 44726.26 points, briefly breaking below the 45000-point integer level and the half-year line, as market panic clearly heated up.
Foreign-Investor Adjustment Plus Forced Margin Selling, OTC Small-Mid Caps Find Support
Regarding the relatively large pullbacks over two consecutive days, senior market analyst 周代運 analyzed that the main reason for this wave of decline was foreign investors adjusting futures and spot positions, while washing out margin floating balances accumulated during the prior rally. Judging from the short-covering ratio, most of the current selling pressure is passive selling, not a full bearish reversal by long-term institutions, but rather investors who bought with margin facing margin-call pressure and being forced to exit, forming forced margin-selling. Although large-cap heavyweights such as 台積電 and 鴻海 weakened and dragged down the index, small- and mid-cap groups in the OTC market such as printed circuit boards and industrial computers have found support at lows without making new swing lows, becoming an important structural indicator for the market.
PHLX Semiconductor Extends Five-Day Win Streak, Asia Rotates, AI Long-Term Trend Intact
Compared with overseas market performance, the U.S. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has closed higher for five consecutive days, and U.S. chip stocks such as Nvidia remain steady, showing that long-term global demand for artificial intelligence chips has not collapsed, and overseas-related targets of 台積電 also maintain a bullish pattern, so the short-term move should be viewed as profit-taking. Meanwhile, in the same trading session Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose more than 1%, and China's A-shares also moved higher around midday, showing that Asian equities were not broadly weak, but capital was rotating across regions, and Taiwan's pullback was a chip adjustment in an individual market.
Do Not Rush to Buy the Dip With Full Positions, Closely Monitor Maintenance Ratio to Control Risk
Looking ahead, 周代運 reminded investors not to rush to buy the dip with full positions, especially high price-to-earnings thematic stocks, which often see larger correction magnitudes, and the support strength of heavyweight stocks should not be directly applied to small speculative stocks. Holders of margin positions should closely monitor changes in maintenance ratios and carefully handle margin-call risks to avoid expanding losses amid volatility. Investors should distinguish between trend reversal and chip-washout signals, and in times of heightened market volatility, should more carefully assess risks and properly manage capital and positions.