Halloween Plunge Breaks Below Half-Year Moving Average
Taiwan stocks opened lower and moved lower on the 30th, with the benchmark index closing down 1156.5 points at 45211.83, falling below the half-year moving average, down 2728.3 points cumulatively in October. The index hit an intraday low of 44726.26, down as much as 1642.07 points at its worst, with losses narrowing into the close but still plunging over a thousand points. Among heavyweights, 台積電 fell 45 to close at 2370, 台達電 hit limit-down, 國巨 slumped over 7%, with electronic heavyweights and AI concept stocks broadly under pressure.
US Tech Earnings Spark AI Concerns
This wave of declines is linked to market concerns sparked by US tech earnings. After Alphabet reported earnings, the market focused on surging AI capital expenditure and pressure on free cash flow, 亞馬遜 also triggered concerns about payback on massive AI investment, while 英特爾 slumped over 20% after hours at one point as its fourth-quarter outlook missed market expectations, with selling pressure in US tech stocks further spilling over into Asian markets. 摩爾投顧 investment chief 郭哲榮 believes the market holds strict standards for tech giants' earnings reports, where even decent results can trigger sharp declines if some data miss expectations, comparing it to Asian parents reviewing report cards, arguing that overly high expectations triggered panic, but the AI industry is still developing rapidly and increased short-term capital expenditure alone does not signal a reversal in fundamentals.
Nine Gains in Ten Years, Optimistic About Fourth-Quarter Rebound
Despite consecutive corrections, 郭哲榮 remains optimistic about a fourth-quarter rebound. He cited Taiwan stocks' fourth-quarter performance over the past 10 years, noting that except for 2018, when hit by the US-China trade war, the other 9 years all saw fourth-quarter gains, a historical pattern worth watching. He believes that with Taiwan stocks having corrected over 2700 points cumulatively in October, some short-term floating supply has been cleared, and if US tech stocks stabilize, AI investment concerns are gradually clarified, and external factors such as interest rates and trade tariffs turn favorable, Taiwan stocks still have a chance to rebound.
Names Six Picks and Warns on Risk Control
On individual stocks, 郭哲榮 is optimistic about 精材's advanced packaging theme, believing related technology demand could become a long-term growth driver, with a long-term target price view of 800 to 1000. For 聯電, he believes the pullback from highs has made the correction attractive, while watching the 105 to 102.5 range closely, with mature-process demand, capacity utilization and profit changes still to be reviewed. In addition, he named 智原 for its ASIC and AI-related themes as a pullback candidate to watch, 國巨 and 環球晶 as names worth noting during the correction, and prefers 元大台灣50 on the ETF side, suitable for investors who want to participate in the broader market without concentrating bets on single stocks. He reminded that there is no need to panic-sell into sharp declines, nor should every pullback be treated as a buying opportunity, suggesting staged positioning based on capital and risk tolerance while holding cash, and most importantly avoiding margin trading or buying stocks with borrowed money to avoid forced selling on margin calls.