Three-Day U.S. Rally Fails to Lift Market as Weak Heavyweights Drag
Major U.S. indexes closed higher across the board on the 28th, rising for a third straight trading day, as the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and Chairman Warsh reiterated his resolve to fight inflation, but did not clearly signal whether rates would be raised again in December. Oracle surged nearly 11% on its long-term revenue outlook, semiconductor stocks strengthened in tandem, and market focus shifted to big-tech earnings, but the rally failed to carry over to Taiwan stocks.
Taiwan stocks opened on the 29th down 80.05 points at 46955.53, down 0.17%, briefly touching 47014.87 in early trade and fluctuating around the 47000 level. Index heavyweight TSMC fell 5 to 2420, down about 0.21%, becoming the main drag on the broader market. The OTC index rose 2.47 points to 397.08, up 0.63%, showing a pattern of weak large-cap heavyweights and relatively lively small- and mid-cap stocks.
Memory and Silicon Photonics Rise Against the Trend
Listed sectors were mixed, with telecoms up 0.55%, biotech and medical up 0.36%, cables up 0.21%, and autos up 0.19%. Glass fell 0.95%, department stores fell 0.67%, and cement and transportation both fell 0.56%. Among individual stocks, VPEC rose 2.73%, PharmaEssentia rose 0.83%, Ju Kai Precision-Innovation Board rose 0.60%, and Walsin Lihwa rose 0.27%; Wan Hai Lines fell 1.69%, President Chain Store fell 1.12%, Taiwan Glass fell 1.07%, and Taiwan Cement fell 0.54%.
Memory stocks rose 1.63% against the trend, with Nanya Technology up 3.14%, becoming a bright spot on the market. Third-generation semiconductors rose 1.57%, silicon photonics concept stocks rose 1.50%, copper-clad laminates rose 1.19%, and Elite Material (EMC) rose 4.48%. In contrast, AI PC concept stocks fell 1.07%, GTC concept stocks fell 0.84%, wireless charging fell 0.64%, and wireless earbuds fell 0.62%, with Delta Electronics down 2.90% and Realtek down 0.51%, showing a clear rotation of funds.
Institutions Focus on AI Infrastructure, Volume and Foreign Investors
Lun-Yuan Investment Consulting analyst Chen Xuejin believes that, helped by AI model developer Anthropic filing for an initial public offering, which reignited AI enthusiasm, plus lower international oil prices lifting sentiment, Taiwan stocks rebounded the previous day to retake the quarterly moving average and 47000, with the daily KD indicator climbing back above 20, signaling a short-term chance of stabilizing. What follows will depend on whether the K line can break above the D line to form a golden cross, accompanied by expanding trading volume and continued net buying by foreign investors. Capital spending by the five major U.S. cloud service providers in 2027 is estimated to grow from about 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars this year to 1.3 trillion to 1.7 trillion U.S. dollars, which should benefit Taiwanese suppliers, with the main theme remaining AI infrastructure and specification upgrades.
Qifa Investment Consulting analyst Rong Yishen believes that after Taiwan stocks surged by nearly 1,000 points the previous day, margin balances rose by 9 billion after falling by 20 billion over two consecutive days, and volume shrank after a one-trillion turnover day on Tuesday, with support at low levels but the rebound still awaiting the removal of uncertainties, and support from 45000 to 46000 not easily broken. Memory stocks followed international benchmarks in rebounding, but face an overhead resistance zone at high levels, with spot prices unlikely to hit new highs, so rebounds can be used to reduce positions; passive components and CPO are at low levels, with rebounds driven by stabilizing international leaders, so do not chase sharp gains in a shrinking-volume market, and buy in batches on pullbacks that hold support. Looking ahead, watch whether the weighted index can return above 47000 and whether TSMC can stabilize.