US AI Concerns Spread to Asian Stocks
Alphabet earnings sparked market concerns over AI investment costs and returns. On Thursday all four major US indexes closed lower, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 1.42% and TSMC ADR down 1.75%. On Friday Asian stocks opened under pressure, with Japanese and Korean markets both lower, Korean stocks plunging over 3%, as chasing momentum cooled.
TAIEX Futures Open Below 46K
In overnight trading, TSMC futures fell 30, and TAIEX futures fell 643 points to close at 45926. November TAIEX futures opened Friday down 1159 points at 45410, losing the 46K mark, with financial futures and mini electronics futures falling together. Sinopac Futures said the weighted index fell 667.25 points to 46368.33 in the previous session, with turnover of 0.82 trillion; TAIEX futures fell 680 points to 46569, with a premium of 200.67 points.
Foreign Short Positions Rise to High Level
On the chip front, the three major institutional investors sold a net 816.66 billion. In TAIEX futures net positions, the three major institutional investors increased net short positions by 3538 contracts to -793, of which foreign investors increased net short positions by 4605 contracts to -89522; among the top ten traders, specific legal entities cut all-month TAIEX futures net long positions by 3609 contracts to 13579 contracts. KGI Futures noted that after a strong rebound in the index, foreign short positions rose to a high near 90000 contracts, turning cautious in the short term and remaining the main short-term source of pressure.
Market Returns to Choppy Pattern
In terms of market structure, the pattern of broad gains across leading stocks lasted only one day; advancing stocks shrank back to just over 300, while declining stocks returned to over 900, almost back to the pattern of the previous sessions, with funds switching quickly between electronics and financials. Ahead, watch whether selling in UMC 大量 extends into wafer-foundry selling pressure, and whether Nanya and Taiwan Optical can hold their gains. Taishin Futures believes this week tests both macro景氣 and AI monetization, focusing on whether huge AI capital spending translates into real monetization; US Q3 GDP advance estimate and core PCE price index will be released at 20:30 Thursday evening, testing respectively whether the US economy is achieving a soft landing and inflation stickiness. With the index pulling back in a single day and the weekly trend turning down, it is seen for now as a technical correction after a sharp long-red surge, with the market still in the choppy pattern since October 20 of repeatedly testing buying support near the quarterly line.