Market Swings Sharply to Close Slightly Higher
Taipei stocks fluctuated sharply on the 27th, with a intraday high-low spread of 908.78 points, closing up 54.8 points at 46096.23 points. The market was affected by Taiwan dollar depreciation and foreign investor selling. Since October, foreign investors have continued net selling in the centralized market, along with proprietary traders, with the three major institutional investors累计 net selling exceeding one trillion yuan in October, futures short positions once exceeding 80,000 contracts, and the index repeatedly seeing washout moves of over 900 points. In contrast, government funds have bought net for 12 consecutive days, with investment trusts also adding positions, forming support in the high zone above 20,000 points, helping the market close in positive territory after a sharp drop.
Institutions Say Primary Uptrend Intact, Eye Peak-Season Rally
Senior analyst 杜金龍 said current pressure mainly comes from short-term variables such as political election sentiment and foreign investor withdrawals, while the primary uptrend structure in wave theory remains solid. He expects political uncertainty to settle in early November, with the market welcoming the traditional rally from the fourth quarter to next year's Lunar New Year and Lantern Festival, with an average gain of 1,500 to 1,800 points during that period in past years. He further forecasts the index has a chance to reach 53,000 to 60,000 points from February to May next year, and head toward an 80,000-point target by 2028, with sharp pullbacks providing布局 opportunities.
Large-Cap Trio Pullback Shows Buying Points
Among heavyweight stocks, 台積電 (2330) saw government fund support below 2,400 yuan, with 杜金龍 revealing buy orders placed in batches at 2,420 yuan and 2,390 yuan. Foreign investors have raised its earnings per share for next year and the year after to over 210 yuan, with a target price of up to 5,000 yuan. IC design leader 聯發科 (2454) fell below the 4,000-yuan mark, correcting over 20% from its high and entering oversold territory. Power management leader 台達電 (2308) retreated from a high of 2,500 yuan to the 1,400 to 1,500-yuan range, a correction of nearly 40%. All three were named as targets for building basic positions in batches.
Memory and CCL Groups Have Room for Repair
Among small- and mid-cap groups, memory maker 南亞科 (2408) is forecast to post 66.8% year-on-year revenue growth next year, with gross margin up to 84.5% and full-year earnings per share estimated at 128.01 yuan, seen as having the strength to challenge 1,000 yuan. Peers 華邦電 (2344) and 旺宏 (2337) await valuation repair. In the copper-clad laminate group, 台燿 (6274) pulled back on rumor impact, with 聯茂 (6213) more active in the short term and 台光電 (2383) as the long-term leader. In addition, 台塑 Group's 南亞 (1303) has asset revaluation and net asset value themes, and pullbacks are also seen as batch buying opportunities. Investments should still carefully assess risks at your own responsibility.