Robot Opportunity Ignites Memory Demand
Tesla CEO Musk shared his outlook for memory demand, saying robots require even more memory and demand will exceed expectations, with shortages worsening once mass-production begins. The market has refocused on memory stocks, lifting Taiwan suppliers such as Nanya Technology and Winbond. Fund managers said that with the era of physical AI robots arriving, in addition to surging memory demand, custom ASIC chip opportunities should not be overlooked. For investors optimistic about the growth and share performance of memory and ASIC companies, they suggest gradually adding semiconductor ETF positions in batches after TSMC moves near its half-year moving average and starts rebounding upward.
Different TSMC Weightings Drive Performance Divergence
According to CMoney statistics, as of October 28, a total of 5 semiconductor ETFs hold TSMC as their largest holding. Except for the Taishin Taiwan IC Design ETF (00947), whose largest holding is Global Unichip at 11.68%, other Taiwan semiconductor ETFs all use TSMC as their largest holding, playing a leading role, though with different weightings. In terms of performance, over the past 1 year, Taishin Taiwan IC Design (00947) rose 131.86%, the best performer; over the past 3 years, Taishin Taiwan Semiconductor 30 (00904) stood out with a 282.84% total return including dividends.
US Bond Yields Weigh on Short-Term Trend
Huang Yu-min, manager of Taishin 00904 and 00947, said weakness in semiconductor stocks mainly reflected surging US Treasury yields. However, with strong earnings from US technology companies and a continued robust outlook for 2027 results, short-term buying could still find support. In addition, Musk noted that if robots enter mass production in the future, memory demand will explode, while TSMC reconfirmed in its latest earnings call that global semiconductor chip demand remains strong, with improved earnings visibility, and AI demand will continue to bring new orders to the semiconductor supply chain. In the short term, share prices will still depend on whether AI capital expenditure, memory demand, and corporate earnings provide further support.
Pre-Election Season Brews Technical Rebound
For the medium- to long-term outlook, Huang expects November to bring US midterm elections and Taiwan local elections, and history shows a relatively higher probability of market gains before elections. Meanwhile, with the semiconductor industry growth trend intact and corporate earnings fundamentals still supported, Taiwan stocks still have a chance to stage a technical rebound after a corrective phase once external uncertainties become clearer. Investors can watch the trend of TSMC half-year moving average as a reference indicator for adding semiconductor ETF positions in batches.