Taiwan Stocks Fall Below Half-Year Line, CCL Drops in Tandem
Affected by US tech giants' earnings and guidance missing market expectations, US tech stocks saw selling pressure. Taiwan stocks weakened on the last trading day of October, breaking below the half-year line of 45314點, closing at 45211.83點, down 1156.5點, or 2.49%, with turnover reaching 8792.57億元. The CCL group also faced selling pressure, 台光電 fell 6.69%, 南亞 fell 5.13%, 台燿 fell 8.99%, and 聯茂 fell 7.79%. Meanwhile, PTFE non-woven copper clad laminate has recently become a market focus, with rumors that NVIDIA's next-generation platform may adopt the material, raising attention on the impact to M9, M10 and glass fabric supply chains.
PTFE Outperforms M9 but Has Two Weaknesses
In response, financial expert 阮慕驊 said on the show 《鈔錢部署》 that it is still too early to conclude PTFE will fully replace existing materials. He noted PTFE's dielectric constant and dissipation factor outperform M9-grade materials, but due to high cost and an immature supply chain, full deployment within two years is unlikely. Initial adoption is more likely to be gradual or hybrid, concentrated in areas such as orthogonal backplanes and Switch Tray, rather than a one-time full conversion.
台光電 Q3 Profit Stable, M9 Mass Production Supports Core Business
He also believes that even if PTFE begins to be introduced, the impact on 台光電 will likely be limited to certain products, and it is hard to infer a rapid reversal in existing high-end CCL competitiveness. The highest-end CCL still involves different material options such as Q-Glass and PTFE non-woven, and whether large-scale adoption follows will depend on yield, processing capability 及成本. 台光電 posted Q3 revenue of 608.85億元, gross margin of 37.7%, and EPS of 40.47元, with M9 already in mass production, and high-end products remain the current operating mainstay.
Names 南亞 for Dual-Track Layout, Warns of Chasing-High Risk
In contrast, 阮慕驊 named 南亞, saying the company is deploying both glass fabric and PTFE technologies, leaving room to participate no matter which material route high-end CCL takes. 南亞's product catalog has listed low-Dk PTFE CCL since 2021, and it holds patents related to glass-fabric-reinforced PTFE films and CCL, along with vertically integrated capabilities in CCL, copper foil, glass fabric and resin, covering multiple segments of the materials layout. He cautioned that for PTFE concept stocks that previously rose sharply, investors should watch whether the theme is already fully priced in. It cannot yet be viewed as a full replacement of existing glass fabric and high-end CCL supply chains, and mass-production schedules, customer qualification progress and actual revenue contribution still need to be observed.