Taipei stocks opened higher and fluctuated on the 27th, barely closing in positive territory, up 54.8 points at 46096.23, a gain of 0.12%, with turnover of 達NT$9765.47 billion. National champion TSMC opened lower at 2380 in early trading before quickly turning red, with strong buying coming in late in the session, surging NT$15 to close at the high of NT$2400. As high-priced thousand-NT-dollar stocks remain hot, small investors have rushed in via odd lots, pushing September odd-lot trading share to 4.113%, a 32-year high, showing a clear change in high-priced stock participation.
Thousand-dollar stocks rely on earnings explosiveness as TSMC shows resilience
Senior analyst 杜金龍 said retail investors used to avoid high-priced thousand-dollar stocks, but odd-lot trading is now very widespread, with more people taking positions in 10-share or 100-share lots. He stressed the core key to picking thousand-dollar stocks is earnings must show explosive growth with extremely strong fundamental support. Although the market recently saw a sharp correction of nearly 4,000 points to the half-year line amid NT dollar depreciation and surging FX turnover, TSMC withstood the pressure, showing strong downside resilience and anchoring the market.
EPS seen at NT$207 with foreign target of NT$5,000
Local institutional reports optimistically forecast TSMC 2028 EPS could reach NT$200 to NT$207, with one foreign institution bullish on long-term growth potential giving a stunning NT$5,000 target price. 杜金龍 said high earnings expectations and strong fundamentals are key to supporting TSMC's high share price and odd-lot buying. Facing volatility, he revealed on the show "Cash Deployment" his unique method for trading TSMC: whenever the market falls sharply, buy low at the opening price, without worrying whether the price breaks below the monthly or quarterly lines, focusing on catching panic sell-offs.
NT dollar stabilization is key; MediaTek advised in tranches
杜金龍 noted that as long as the NT dollar stabilizes and rebounds and foreign investors turn from sellers to buyers, TSMC can bottom out at key support and lead the market back upward. Besides TSMC, for IC design major MediaTek, which has corrected 20% from its highs, he gave clear advice that investors can use the odd-lot mechanism to buy 100 shares at a time in a paced, buy-on-dips approach, avoiding pressure to commit large funds at once, and be ready for the next tech rebound.